6.2 Future trends


Intelligence Resource (IR)

Praktisk Intelligence (I)/Business Intelligence (BI)/

OmverdensOvervåking (OO)




Intelligence/Business Intelligence/ OmverdensOvervåking 


Internet Marketing Intelligence

Internett Marketing  

Web utviklingsprossen 

CD/Video utviklingsprossen 

Tips& Triks 



Kunnskapskilden –  E-Business





E-Business – Nøkkelområder

E-Business – Sjekkliste Strategi

E-Business – Sjekkliste for IT Infrastrukturen

E-Business – Sjekkliste Innhold

E-Business – Sjekkliste for E-Handelssystemet

E-Business – Sjekkliste Marketing

E-Business – Sjekkliste Kundeservicesystemet

E-Business – Online Community

The E-Business, the E-Customer, their Relationship and Interactivity



KunnskapskildenE-Business –
E-Business, E-Customer, Relationship and Interactivity


The E-Business, the E-Customer,
their Relationship and Interactivity 

Jan Vig 

Dissertation  av Jan Vig om E.Business, E-Customer, Relationship and Interactivity  (286 sider) i forbindelse med Masterstudie i Information Technology and Communication Juni 2000.


The E-Retailer Business, the E-Customer,
their Relationship and Interactivity

Table of Contents

Chapter One Introduction to the study

Chapter Two Business in Cyberspace

Chapter Three E- Retailer Commerce

Chapter Four E-Customer, Relationship and Interactivity

Chapter Five A Successful Case study – Amazon.com

Chapter Six The Future, Critical Success Factors, E-Business Strategy, Results and Conclusion



Chapter 6

The Future, Critical Sucess Faktors, E-Business Strategy, Results and Conclusion 


Chapter Six The Future, Critical Success Factors, E-Business Strategy, Results and Conclusion

6.1 Introduction 185
6.2 Future trends 188
6.3 The critical success factors for E-Business 194
6.4 Developing effective E-Business Strategy 203
6.5 Lessons learned 210
6.5.1 Understanding E-Business 210
6.5.2 Change 210
6.5.3 A ‘complete’ development process 211
6.5.4 Customer satisfaction 211
6.6 Recommendation 212
6.7 Conclusion



Future Trends


What will the E-Future look like and how can E-Retailers capture its potential?


The combination of Internet connectivity, miniaturized electronics,
and robust back-end systems will enable thousands of creative solutions.
Consumers will do their grocery shopping through a screen on their refrigerator door,
buy clothing through a connected closet,
and tune their car’s engine by plugging in to an online port in their garage.
Companies that create and deliver these solutions will gain competitive advantage.
Further, multiple applications may be integrated at the household or office level, becoming part of a total broadband solution.

(Andersen Consulting, n.d.)


As bandwidth and creativity continue to grow on the Internet, Web site interactivity will become more interactive. Advances in animation, 3-D/virtual reality, audio, video, and databases will allow E-Retailers to present a different interactive Web experience for each individual user. Interactivity will become more purposeful. It will go beyond the purpose of attracting users, to engaging users. It will help customers bond with the site and the company. With the goal of getting users to visit the E-Retailer Web site more often and stay longer, interactivity can be the key. Today more and more companies are using interactivity technologies like web chat, intelligent agents and interactive recommendation systems to help their users find what they need on their web site.


Broadband is so powerful that virtual reality will be almost indistinguishable from reality.
Indeed, online shoppers will be able to «touch» and «smell» the merchandise through their multimedia Web appliances.
As this becomes possible by about 2005, click-happy shoppers will flock on-line,
overwhelming the shortsighted views of stodgy brick-and-mortar retailers
who stubbornly insist that people will always come to their stores.
On the contrary, strip malls are toast and many shop-ping malls
will go bankrupt as «click-and-buy» e-tailing drives the economy into high gear. “(Feather, 2000)


Wireless communication will also become more important making the single individual even less dependable on certain location, on certain devices or certain software. Bandwidth will become adjustable in such a manner that anyone will get the speed they need at a certain moment. Customers are beginning to arm themselves with personal communications devices such as mobile phones and palmtop computers, both of which can include wireless Internet connections. As they shop in the physical world – seeing, touching, and smelling the items they want – they’ll use agents to make the actual purchase online, at a lower price. It’s really an updated version of an age-old retailer nightmare, customers who look and listen at local stores, then buy from discount catalog outlets.


The biggest change in technology will be less advanced and faster processor or new operating systems, but the free choice of technology.

The marriage of several information, access appliances are giving birth to more sophisticated devices.

Palmtop PC + Wallet = Wallet PCInternet + Wallet = Electronic Wallet or Digital WalletPersonal computer + Television = interactive TV or Web TVInternet + PC = Internet PC or Network Computer

Internet + Video streaming = Netcasting or Webcasting

Television +Internet = Intercasting

Telephone + Internet = Web Phone

Informationkiosk + Internet = Internet Kiosks



Instead of having a radio, a television set, a compact disc player and a computer,
which most people have today, only one device will be around,
which is able to replace all consumer devices.
Physical media such as compact discs and videocassettes will become obsolete. (Amor, 200,575)
Television and radio will become just another set of packets on the Internet.
They won’t disappear, but the diffusion over the air will disappear.
Instead of an aerial, you will need a broadband Internet connection in order to watch digital television.
The same will happen to radio, which is already today one of the most popular services on the Internet. (Amor, 2000:576)

How should retailers and E-Retailers meet all this opportunities and threats?

Today’s consumer is savvier than ever to marketing tricks.
Tomorrow’s consumer will have unprecedented power
over what they watch and when.
Which means marketers are going to have to do more than pay lip services
to the idea that the customers comes first. “ (Marketing & Business, 2000: 27-30)


In a world where customers constantly seek new value propositions, sellers must rethink how they bundle products and services, and how they can ensure long-term relationships with their customers. Some ideas: (Andersen Consulting, n.d.)

  • The E-Retailers may open up physical stores as showrooms, where people can look and evaluate the merchandise before buying from the online source.
  • Physical retailers could re-think their strategy of offering convenience services and adopt a «warehouse» approach to selling products: no services, few salespeople, and customers help themselves to what they need.
  • Both physical and online retailers can build profiles of individual customers, automatically suggesting and offering new products that are tailored to the customer’s preferences.




Long ago, retailers recognized that shoppers don’t always know what they are looking for – they shop recreationally, often making purchases they didn’t plan on. Yet online shopping today almost completely ignores the potential for this «opportunistic exploration.» Sure, it’s easy to find exactly what the E-Customers are looking for, provided they use the right search terms. But is this truly «shopping,» or is it just order entry and information retrieval?


The most common ways to shop online are keyword searches and menus of hypertext links, but as any experienced E-Customers knows, both of these navigational aids can lead precisely to the product they had in mind, or, precisely nowhere.

Visual navigation presents tremendous opportunities for retailers, both physical and online: (Andersen Consulting, n.d.)

  • By starting at a high level and allowing the shopper to work down to the item they are considering for purchase, retailers can assemble lists of complementary products to display as purchasing decisions are being made, leading to an increase in overall sales.
  • Customers spend more time in stores in informative and entertaining browsing environments; the more time spent in the store, the more likely they are to make additional purchases.
  • Floor space can be reduced in physical stores, the need to attractively arrange and display products is greatly reduced; a visual navigation kiosk can be set up to display images for the store’s entire product lines.
  • Sales associates can provide more personalized services to customers; or, in some cases, the number of sales staff can be reduced.
  • This technology can be transferred to an electronic medium, searches around clustering can be made available through the retailer’s web page.




By 2010, the Internet will have gobbled up 30% of consumer spending, leaving most brick-and-mortar retailers in rubble. Moreover, as people continue to flock online and e-shopping becomes a daily routine of their «Web Lifestyle,» they will focus their buying on a «short list» of but a few favorite web sites. To succeed in such a digitally competitive networked world, retailers must anticipate e-consumer behavior and foresee how the Web is reshaping society and shaking-up the economy. (Feather, 2000)



Concerning Privacy and Security in the Future (Amor, 2000: 578) come up with the following forecast:

As every device is collecting data on your spending and usage, one-to-one-marketing can become even more effective.
The more information about yourself that becomes available to merchants the easier they can make the appropriate offers to you.
This has the disadvantage that you may eventually lose control over your privacy,
if you give out all this type of information to every merchant that passes by on the Internet.
” Most probably it will not be the government stealing your privacy, it will be the advertising and marketing agencies,
who are interested in your profile in order to make you buy even more things you do not need.
This tendency can be seen already on many web sites today.
In order to prevent such a situation, a new form of trust needs to be built up.
Intelligent agents will sit in house and controlling the flow into the house and out.»
They will be the only ones to see your detailed profile.

Security also becomes very important. In order to keep privacy and ensure that nobody else is able to switch devices in the household on or off,  a next generation type of firewall will be required that allows the secure access to devices, while one is on holiday, for example, but prohibits any other access to them. New forms of authentication will therefore be required, which make it impossible for penetrators to appear as somebody else


The future of the Internet will be tightly integrated with the technological advances and change of business models in the future. Several programs are in progress to create new Internet technologies, such as the Internet 2 initiative in United States, which brings the infrastructure that is required to build up highly interconnected homes, which allow us to bundle all types of media into a single media center.

The «Webolution» will really take off as broadband replaces old phone lines to carry real-time multimedia content. With broadband, the Internet is «always on» and there is no more need to «log on» to the Internet. In the near future, your PC or «TeleCom Wallet» will jump to life at the sound of your voice and take you wherever you want to go. In such a world, not to have Internet access will be as absurd as not having a phone or TV today. (Feather, 2000)


The World Wide Web, which dominates today’s online business will envolve into a more interactive and multi-medial type of place. Many services that are available on the Internet have already become part of the World Wide Web. Group calendar services, online chats, newsgroups are all merging to the web platform making it easy to integrate all other types of services. The teletext system, which is part of the television, will be replaced by the web that allows you to view the television program in more interactive manner.

The Web as we know it today will disappear or at least become less relevant. The simple linking of pages will be substituted by a more powerful way of linking content to each other. Multiple targets will become common, meaning that clicking on one link will provide the user with more than one resource at a time. This will for example eliminate link lists. Instead of providing a list of links on a certain subject the user provide one link and the possibility to specify the content and it will automatically select the right content for the user. Although this is already possible through search technologies it will be available to anyone through a simple command in HTML. Searching on the Web will also become easier as search technologies evolve and become more mature. Instead of typing in cryptic keywords natural sentences and search engines with built-in-voice recognition will ask you to clarify the sentence. They will become standard on the Internet.


In the future we will see new intermediaries appearing in between consumers and providers.
Content brokers. The new providers will either provide content, products or services.  The traditional model of selling goods at a fixed price will also change from pay-once towards the pay-per-use model. We will also get produkt brokers, shopping brokers and service brokers.


According to (Janal, 1999) he sees six trends for the Millennium. Trends both for the E-Customer and the E-Retailer. They are:

  1. Internet business is everywhere and will change every profession and industry.
  2. Internet access is everywhere.
  3. Everyone is on the net.
  4. Internet savings are everywhere. Never have consumers had access to so much classified information for free.
  5. You can find anything you want on the Net.
  6. Your private information is everywhere. Say goodbye to privacy.



Concerning online shopping Feather (2000) predicts that it will top US$1 trillion, by then accounting for at least 30% of all retail sales. He further predicts that we will live, work, learn, play, and shop through the Internet for most of our personal and family needs. By 2005, the Internet will be 100 times bigger than it is today. By 2010, there will be one billion people online up from 120 million worldwide today. The Internet is fast-becoming a shopper’s paradise and is changing not only where people buy, but how often, when, what, and why.

Most retailers and malls will disappear as E-Commerce goes direct to the home. Who needs thousands of banks, book stores, supermarkets, hard-ware stores, drug stores or any other kind of store if the E-Customer can buy everything from a few web sites?

Download Dissertation


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