4.7 What technological trends / developments need to be considered?


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Kunnskapskilden –  Internet Marketing Intelligence

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Internet Marketing Intelligence




Kunnskapskilden – Internet Marketing Intelligence
Internet Situational Analysis of 1to1 Marketing/CRM


Research Project: Internet Situational Analysis of 1to1 Marketing/CRM  from Jan Vig  at Griffith University , Australia  1999/2000



Chapter 1 Introduction/overview

Chapter 2 Search Strategy

Chapter 3 One to One Marketing and its environment

Chapter 4 Environmental Scan

Chapter 5 Market analysis

Chapter 6 Competitors Analyses

Chapter 7 SWOT

Chapter 8 Critical Success factors

Chapter 9 Segmentation, Customer analysis and target markets

Chapter 10 Business Objectives and Strategies

Chapter 11 Marketing Mix tactics and Conclusions



Chapter 4

Environmental Scan



Chapter 4 Environmental Scan

4.1 General trend

4.2 What demographic trends / factors need to be considered?

4.2.1 Generally

4.2.2 Demographics and Internet

4.3 Economic and Business trends / factors

4.3.1 Generally

4.3.2 Internet and Economic and Business trends / factors

4.3. 4. Transactions

4.3.5 Daily Financial and Economic News Services

4.3.6 General Economic Demographics

4.3.7 Sample Economic Journals Online

4.3.8 Business Trends

4.4 What Political / Legal factors are likely to impact on the market?

4.4.1 Generally

4.4.2 Internet and E-commerce

4.4.3 Internet and Work force

4.4.4 Internet commerce, Legal and ethical issues, security and regulations

4.4.5 The Market Impact of New Media

4.5 Trade and International Issues

4.5.1 Generally

4.5.2 International Trade Newsgroups and Listservs

4.5.3 International Trade Sites

4.5.4 Trade and International Resources

4.6 What social / cultural trends / factors need to be considered?

4.6.1 Generally

4.6.2 Trends for the future

4.6.4 The trends which are undermining One to One Industry’s concept

4.6.5 Other Social trends

4.6.6 Workforce trend

4.7 What technological trends / developments need to be considered?

4.7.1 Generally

4.7.2 21st. Century trends(1)

4.7.3 21ST. Century trends (2)

4.7.4 Future Trends in Telecommunications

4.7.3 The Eight Critical Information TechnologyTrends

4.7.6 Internet and technology change

4.8 What environmental factors? (green environment)

4.8.1 Generally

4.8.2 Internet




What technological trends/developments need to be considered


Research Project: Internet Situational Analysis of 1to1 Marketing/CRM  from Jan Vig  at Griffith University , Australia  1999/2000


4.7.1 Generally

To have an idea for the major role of the technology think of the first computer it was the size of a room. Today some P/C have the size of a chocolate box.  Any market growth is closely connected with technological innovations.  Every new technology creates bigger or smaller market opportunities which have to be identified and effectively manipulated.


Moving from the 1970’s to the 1990’s, commercial network technology has expanded from individual and electronically isolated proprietary local area networks to worldwide connectivity via the Internet. As a consequence e-commerce has grown from transaction processing between and within a small number of selected business trading partners to worldwide competition for products and services.


In the same timeframe, the power of personal computers and associated software products have increased drastically. Rapid development of new computer technologies has meant that computer vendors must price their existing stock to maintain a steady turnover. Reasonable prices and availability of technology has meant that a growing proportion of businesses and families can now own personal computers and networks.


In step with computer technology, the technology of telecommunications has also embraced the digital era. Expansion of communication networks with satellite and land-based microwave links has meant that an ever growing proportion of the worlds population can communicate efficiently with the rest of the world.


Improved telecommunications and computer technologies and most importantly, its ready availability to the wider public, is having a marked impact on the world of commerce. Trade conducted using the Internet as a medium is carried out 24 hours a day, every day and is not restricted by geographical, political or cultural boundaries. It allows all traders whether a single owner operator with low overheads or a multinational corporation with immense buying power to compete for

market share on equal terms.


Whilst the preceding commentary makes the Internet and e-commerce sound exciting and full of promise (and it is) there are a number of issues that must be considered carefully in order to take full advantage of the opportunities.



Technology trends include: 

  • accelerating pace of technological change
  • unlimited innovations opportunities
  • high R & D budgets , Today’s research is carried mainly in laboratories rather than by inventors like Thomas Edison or Graham Bell
  • concentration on minor improvements . This is a result of the high R&D Cost. Companies tend to be defensive rather than offensive and this is carried through minor product improvements.
  • increased regulation of technological change as products become more complex two issues have to be addressed. Their safety and their copy rights.



4.7.2  21st. Century trends(1)

http://www.i5ive.com/articles.cfm/future_technology/1-9 Blur: The Speed of Change


It is approximated that the total amount of information worldwide doubles every 18 months. This figure applies to the technological and scientific realms, mass media, and other sources.


Data overflow can be overwhelming, and even disastrous without data «engineering». We have witnessed, for example, how bureaucracies bury themselves in massive, unneeded paperwork, and this process

can be called redundancy. The other side of data redundancy is data starvation, and a corporation (and also a person, or a country) could suffer from either form of such systemic diseases. When it becomes

overwhelming, information needs less to be tabulated, and more to be engineered, or interpreted, in order to enhance its value as knowledge.


The confederation of networks we call Internet seems to have two embryonic, almost miraculous qualities. As a system, it has the power to organize itself (and therefore its data content) without a

central authority, but also expands rapidly like an enormous body of live cells.


Not even the forefathers of Internet, like Vinton Cerf, could predict exactly its course. As Nicholas Negroponte (director at M.I.T. Media Labs) describes, processes that double themselves every unit of time

happen in the beginning very slowly, and therefore appear unnoticeable.


Robert Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet and founder of 3Com Corp., realized back in 1970 that the power of sharing machines on a network rises as the square of the total power of all machines attached to it. In

other words, with every new computer attached to the Internet, the network’s value and resources rise in an ever increasing spiral of power.


It is evident that the Web will become a major depository of knowledge. Its «self-organizing» quality can be already seen, although it is slow at this stage. Can we expect the Web, and other forms of interactive media to save us from the data invasion?


In his book Powershift (Bantam Books, 1990), Alvin Toffler contended that tomorrow’s wealth will not be determined by one’s acres of land, or ounces of gold, but by the quality and speed of one’s information.

The first trend we see for the next century is a gradual increase in the speed of data. Fast data and value-enhanced data will become conditions, and definite sources of wealth.


A second trend is the increased globalization of many aspects of life (whatever happens in one part of the world has impact everywhere). It is assumed that business relationships, the legislation of international

commerce, and even money will have to adapt to this global condition.


The third trend is the arrival of a new stage in the democratization of culture, as the individual feels the need to become the master, and not anymore a passive consumer and prisoner of information. This

explains the success of interactivity, where the user is the initiating, deciding party, as opposed to his position in front of a traditional television set where he has little decision making. The Web emerged

as a heterarchy, rather than a hierarchy; it is a grassroots creation, and not imposed from the top.


The next paradigm shift is expected to come from the combined use of sensors and wearable computers. As the price of microchips decreases dramatically, «wearables» will augment human capacity,

becoming a sort of permanent addition to our beings. They will allow for collaborative living, and for the proliferation of virtual companies, mostly small, but able to expand internationally.




4.7.3 21ST. Century trends (2)




Applied to the microchip, the Moore’s Law (Gordon Moore, cofounder of Intel Corporation) describes a near magical effect for interconnecting transistors: as increasing numbers of silicon transistors are packed in a smaller space, they run better, faster, and cheaper. The performance of chips literally doubles every 18 months. And so does the bandwidth for networks.


Some of the results visible in the first decade of the 21st. Century, (assuming that we go well through the Y2K crisis), are:


Prices of voice/data/video communications will drop dramatically, worldwide. Long-distance phone communication will be carried mostly through the Internet, for under 3 cents per minute.


Most «mass media» will become interactive, although some passive forms will still exist.


Digital TV broadcasting will be the norm, with most of the world adapting to it.


  • 24 hours/day customer service will become a widespread business reality. We will see extreme product and service customization, according to increasingly narrow niches.
  • Wireless computer-phone devices will be available for less-expensive communication from anywhere to everywhere.
  • Paper will be more expensive, and will slowly become replaceable by cheap, ultrathin, flexible digital displays (as cheap as fine stationery, and therefore disposable). These displays, as thin as a latex glove, have been already invented at Xerox PARC, and will be competing with other forms from MIT and E-Ink . Same technologies will be used for inexpensive portable computers, and large commercial signs.
  • The price of chips and digital storage will fall as dramatic as that of communications.
  • Entire books will be available for download to such a portable and inexpensive display (flexible or not), changing the world of publishing.
  • Long distance learning and telecommuting may finally change the way we live. Employees will have a serious need to expand their computer skills and entrepreneurial qualities.
  • The migration of middle class from suburbs to the countryside, and that of corporations from cities to areas of less taxation, may very well accelerate.



4.7.4 Future Trends in Telecommunications

http://www.state.oh.us/das/dcs/opp/events/landoline414/tsld001.htm Ken Landoline Author: Cheryl Hines  Giga Information Group  28/9-99 April 14, 1999 Table of Contents


  • Today’s Global Profile·        Futurists Predict
  • Futurists Predict (continued)
  • The Future
  • Customer Demand Is Shaping The Future
  • Telecommunications Revenues Growing Rapidly
  • Changing Traffic Patterns
  • The Road to Multimedia
  • Demanding Requirements of Multimedia Applications
  • Video Conferencing Network Evolution
  • Communications Revolution
  • Giga-Identified Telecommunications Trends
  • Telephony Switch Evolution
  • Adjunct Telephony System Evolution
  • PPT Slide
  • Voice Over the LAN
  • Original Multisystem CTI Model
  • PPT Slide
  • Single Server LAN PBX
  •  The Network PBX
  • PPT Slide
  • Future CT Internetworking
  • Computer Telephony: Future Directions·        Call Center Service/Cost Balance (Slide 26)
  • Major Call Center Trends(Slide27)
  • PPT Slide
  • Add the Internet
  • PPT Slide
  • COMMWeb Product Functionality
  • Cyber Call Center Futures
  • Strategic Market Opportunity: Customer Interaction
  • Network
  • The Changing High-Growth Messaging Market
  • Speech Recognition
  • Public Networks
  • Forces Driving Convergence
  • Converged Network Requirements
  • Evolution of Network Convergence
  • Iridium
  • Market/Product Positioning
  • Increased Service Provider Role (IP VPN)
  • Additional Evolving Trends to Monitor
  • Summary & Conclusions
  • Summary & Conclusions (continued) Today’s Global Profile 



  • 51 Are Female / 49 Male
  • 70 Are Illiterate
  • 80 Live in Substandard Housing
  • 50 Have Used a Telephone at Least Once
  • 50 Live More Than Two Hours Away From Nearest Phone
  • None Own a Computer

Source: U.S. Commerce Department

Commerce Department Global Statistical Analysis Study Normalized to a Group of 100 People: Futurists Predict


  • Within a few years, multimedia will become an everyday technology, and on the Internet of the future, telephone services and transmission of moving images will be standard
  • R&D, business and leisure will be increasingly dominated by computers and telecommunications
  • By 2006 consumers will order one-third of their food and clothing with the click of a mouse
  • Innovation cycles will shorten as development projects are carried out simultaneously in a “follow-the-sun” method
  • A third of all office workers will spend at least two days a week working from home, causing a 20% drop in business traffic
  • Higher and continuing education will increasingly take place at home, while virtual schools and universities will become widespread
  • Small- and medium-sized businesses will have to cooperate more closely to keep up with competition and increasingly involve their customers in the development phase of their products/services
  • “Chip cards” are replaced by biometrics (facial recognition, fingerprints) (2009)
  • Monitors that fit into handbags and flexible displays that can be folded and rolled up come onto the market (2010)
  • All electronically stored information will be accessible in any of the world’s major languages and pocket-sized translation systems will make the local language comprehensible (2012) 

Source: “Delphi ’98 – A Study of the Global Development of Science and Technology” The Future

Although the Future Is Difficult to Forecast, We Can Predict a Few Things With Some Certainty: 

  • The Future Will Not Be Like the Present
  • The Rate of Change Will Increase
  • Technology Will Play a Greater Role in Society and at Work
  • The Economy Will Become More and More Global
  • Competition (and Therefore Choice) Will Increase Customer demand is Shaping the future World Telephone Subscribers


1998: 1 Billion Subscribers((Wireline and Wireless)

2018 2 Billion Subscribers(Wireline and Wireless)


  • It took 100 years to install the first 700 million lines
  • An additional 700 million lines will be installed over the next 20 years
  • More than 200 million wireless subscribers today
  • An additional 700 million will be added over next 20 years Global Internet Users

1994: 30 Million1998: 135 Million2001: 260 Million ?More than 100 million additional internet users are expected online by 2001
 Traffic patterns are changing:

  • Voice call averages 3 minutes
  • Internet session is 25 to 30 minutes
 Telecommunications Revenues Growing Rapidly


Compound Growth Rate (1997-2001)Communications Software:                   26%Data Networking:                      25%Wireless Infrastructure:             20%

Switching & Access:                 10%

Enterprise Telephony:                8%

Source: Lucent Technologies
 Communications Revolution

A Few Years From Now We Will Sum up an Era of Revolution in Communications and Information Delivery:

  • Open, Standard-Based Telephony & Communications Platforms
  • Software-Driven Functionality
  • Integration of Voice, Data and Video Into One Multimedia Environment Over IP
  • Integration of the Networks: PSTN, Internet, Intranet and Wireless Giga-Identified Telecommunications Trends


  • Voice/Fax transmission moving to packet-switched networks
  • Multimedia access to call centers (voice, e-mail, fax, Web and video)
  • Voice switching (PBXs & KTS) and related applications are moving from closed, proprietary platforms to open, Windows NT- type platforms
  • An infusion of wireless technologies into the enterprise as per-user prices approach those of wired technologies
  • The introduction of large vocabulary, natural speech voice-recognition technologies into everyday life
  • Single number “reach me” products and services proliferate Computer Telephony: Future Directions

  • IP gateways will move from a toll bypass tool to offering a myriad of functions affecting intra- and intercompany functionality
  • Middleware providers will continue to enhance the positioning of application developers, VARs and ISPs in development of CT implementations
  • Traditional data/LAN and video providers will encroach on space of traditional voice communications vendors as voice and data products/services begin to evolve into multimedia traffic
 Major Call Center Trends



  • Switch-Centric Architecture with Proprietary Links·        Centralized  Mega-Centers
  • Voice Call Centers
  • Cost Center



  • Open Architectures with Industry Standard Interfaces 
  •     Decentralized  Virtual Call Centers
  •        Multimedia  Contact Centers
  •        Competitive Tool


  • More sophisticated tools in smaller centers·        More component applications involved in each transaction
  • Increased need to work with legacy applications
  • Evolution toward “cyber centers”
  • Higher occurrence of inexperienced management
  • More customer demand for integrated data (ACD, IVR, business results, etc.) Cyber Call Center Futures


  • Greater use of Internet/intranet tools in applications
  • Increasing support for IP and browser interfaces in software and IP telephony in hardware
  • Increased used of “Web callback” and transition to “Web callthrough”
  • Standardization of clients
  • Increased QOS on IP networks in support of multimedia traffic
  • Enhanced system-integration requirements melding best-of-breed vendors
  • Internet/intranet/extranet solutions focused on selling to key customers Strategic Market Opportunity: Customer Interaction Network


  • SOHO
  • Knowledge Worker
  • Network Service Providers
  • Multimedia Call Centers
  • Remote / Informal Call Centers
  • Virtual Call Centers
  • Formal Call Centers
  • Customer
  • Interaction
  • Networks Forces Driving Convergence


  • Large enterprise accounts and service providers are building converged, multiservicebackbone networks in an effort to reduce costs
  • End users are demanding new services to improve productivity (customer premise equipment approach)
    – Voice over data
    – IP-based virtual private networks (VPN)
  • Service providers are reacting to end-user needs by offering new, integrated services (service bureau approach)
 Additional Evolving Trends to Monitor


  • Self Help vs. Customer Service
  • Automated Selling and Provisioning
  • Voice Verification
  • Increase in “Service Bureau” Delivery of Applications
  • Single Number “Find-Me/Follow-Me” Services
  • CTI Moving From Call Center to Desktp
  • Expansion of Internet Portals Summary & Conclusions


  • Voice/Fax transmission shifts from circuit to packet-switched
  • Voice switching and associated applications shift from closed/proprietary to open/standard platforms
  • Multimedia access to call centers and “anymedia” networks will proliferate
  • Wireless technology will permeate the enterprise as price per user approaches wired solutions
  • Large vocabulary, natural language voice recognition technology applications will become commonplace
  • Single number “reachability” products and services will be a natural means of reaching individuals
  • The Internet/intranet will become a major source of intersystem connectivity for system control and management
  • The IP telephony gateway will expand in functionality from toll bypass tool to offering a myriad of advanced features
  • Computer telephony applications/solutions will expand from the call center to the desktop of knowledge workers


4.7.5     The Eight Critical Information TechnologyTrends


“There are eight critical trends already underways in information technologies that will create the real consumer revolution and create unprecedented growth in productivity and personal wealth:

They are:

  • Trend 1 Vastly expanded computer power
  • Trend 2 Mass adoption of portable and home PCs
  • Trend 3 Computer evo;ve into simple, inexpensive appliances
  • Trend 4 Microprocessor-embedded home appliances linked throgh Internet
  • Trend 5 Consumer rapidly move online
  • Trend 6 Expansion of communications bandwith
  • Trend 7. Object-oriented programming for customized software
  • Trend 8. Increased computer literacy, due to an aging population

(Dent, Harry S. JR, 1998, The Roaring 2000s, page 111, ISBN 1-86395-329-9 



4.7.6 Internet and technology change Generally

For the USA, the venture capital process results in a huge independent laboratory environment that sparks the economy every time a successful idea goes to market.

The question here is: Where does that leave the rest of the world. USA owns the majority of Web technological innovations.

Despite reaching close to perfection at formulating electronic commerce policies, Europe seems to be handicapped owing to several factors.


  • Europe does not have the venture capital mentality or process that is driving most American innovation focused on the Internet. In Europe most large R&D investments and ventures seems to be driven by large national industrial organizations, and lack the entrepreneurial spirit of the American system.
  • European is known for their inclination to study, analyze, and discuss theories before deciding to jump into trials. They quickly bring the culture, sociological, human and philosophical debates to the forefront of technology issues, an approach that tends to paralyze actions while the debate goes on. Americans have an urgency to embrace technology, do not consider their cultural heritage as a barrier, and work on dealing with problems later, either they are of a technology nature or not. European likes to analyze the part and reflect on it.


Technology plays a great role in One to One Industry’s operations. One to One Industry has to make use of the newest technology on the market in building up its one to one and e-commerce concept.

Customer solutions are based on continuously developing technological inventions (already proved functional).

So it is actually prerequisite to be fully aware of the latest development, sort out realistic choices and implement them in One to One Industry’s concept.


Essential trends of development at the moment are digitalization, rapidly growing transfer rates, optical data transmission, and considerable growth of the wireless telecommunications and open Internet techniques. Also closer to public development, like digital -TV, internet accessibility through televisions, radios, mobile phones etc. molds the technology field. Intense global competition guides and quickens the renewal of techniques and generates competing networks and services.


The marriage of several information – access appliances are giving birth to more sophisticated devices Personal computer + Television = INTERACTIVE TV or WEB TVTelevision +Internet = INTERCASTING

Palmtop PC + Wallet = WALLET PC

Telephone + Internet = WEB PHONE



Internet + Video streaming = NETCASTING or WEBCASTING

Informationkiosk’s + Internet = INTERNET KIOSKS

The pace of technology development is a two-way street. If it increases too quickly, changes cannot be adapted (learned, implemented and used) well enough and lots of the company resources have to be put in training personnel. This is a challenge for One to One Industry to meet.


Technology trends

  • Internet technologies – dialogue marketing or “narrowcasting”
    So what is the target market?
    – if it can be reached via the Internet – which technologies will we use for the dialog with the customer?
    – what will the customers need be during the coming 3 to 5 years?
  • Browser adds on
    – video streaming
    – audio
    – 3D
  • Java, VRML
    – virtual reality, VRML
    – Java technologies
  • Internet access
    – Do the customer need more banswith to access Internet from PC?
    – Do the customer want access from TV?
  • The customer product will be integrated with the Internet (television. Mobile phones.phones)
    – Digital – TV
    Digital TV set-top boxes
    2. Digital TV with an Internet browser
    3. Digital TV integrates the Internet and the Television (EDI, Internet and the Electronic Marketplaces
  • Best practice (target micro-marketing)



Possibilities:Internet enables us to:

  1. to identify audiences and build user profiles
  2. to store and retrieve information Forrester analyzes technology change


Forrester analyzes technology change and its impact on business, consumers, and society. Clients use Forrester’s «whole view» of corporate technology, Internet commerce, and customer behavior to drive winning strategies in the Internet Economy.

http://www.forrester.com/ER/Events/Upcoming/Overview/0,1550,38,FF.html Marketing & New Media Forum: Selling To Europe’s Digital Consumers

European consumers are ready to buy online, but most companies are not prepared. This Forum will focus on how retail, marketing, and new media executives can use the Internet and other technologies to influence consumer buying, improve customer relationships, and drive sales. Forrester will also present the results of its first European survey of 16,500 consumers, revealing their use of and attitude toward technology. This information will help you understand consumers’ buying habits as you plan strategic

products and sales tactics. http://www.forrester.com/ER/Press/Release/0,1769,160,FF.html eCommerce Success Could Be Hindered By Order Fulfillment Chaos

Cambridge, Mass., August 26, 1999 . . . Companies are figuring out how to sell goods over the Internet, but getting the goods to the customer is another story. As online orders from consumers and businesses soar past the 2 billion per year mark, Net sellers will be faced with logistics chaos. A new Report from Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR) predicts that the demand for order fulfillment solutions will reshape the existing landscape as logistics suppliers evolve to serve the small-package, individual-oriented needs of commerce site operators.


Order fulfillment hasn’t been a serious eCommerce issue to date because most Net sellers have limited the number of products offered on their sites and executed fulfillment in-house. But as online sales move past the experimental phase, three factors — an expanded selection of products sold online, the need to move a large volume of small parcels, and rising customer expectations — will combine to put new pressures on order fulfillment systems.


«No one is prepared for the exponential growth in parcel deliveries that online sales will generate,» said Stacie S. McCullough, Business Applications Research analyst at Forrester. «Firms that fail to attack order fulfillment with the same vigor as online selling will experience customer defection, funding attrition, and distribution nightmares.»


Companies can meet the demands of online selling by developing a fulfillment system that delivers end-to-end logistics, which Forrester defines as: package visibility and service continuity from buy button to final destination. End-to-end logistics follows three clear imperatives — empower customers, focus on parcels, and deliver to the customer’s doorstep. Firms need to keep customers informed with up-to-date information about order arrival and empower them through self-service solutions that address common fulfillment problems. Meanwhile, manufacturers and distributors need to shift their focus

from shipping pallets to stores to delivering packages to individual consumers. Finally, rising global demand requires that merchants and shippers alike prepare to handle any type of delivery in any geographic region.


Although a few fulfillment vendors like Fingerhut and Valley Media are geared up to service the largest eCommerce sites, most online sellers ship less than 400 orders a day — too small to get any help. But over the next two years, Forrester predicts that new outsourced services will evolve

to deliver end-to-end solutions to smaller online players. These companies will offer improved drop-ship services and provide a range of residential delivery options.
«With residential deliveries expected to exceed 2.1 billion by 2003, a strategic battle over the consumer doorstep is under way,» added McCullough. «Shippers have figured out that whichever vendor establishes an ongoing relationshi with the consumer becomes the online retail gateway.»


For the Report «Mastering Commerce Logistics,» Forrester interviewed 40 vice presidents of operations from retail, Internet, and manufacturing companies that have an online presence. The respondents indicated that their companies are easing into online selling, shipping a median of 400 online orders per day. However, less than half make a profit on each shipped package and most fail to accurately

measure the total cost of fulfillment. And 85% still can’t fill international orders because of the complexities of shipping across borders. Of the globally incapacitated, 75% cite their systems’ inability to register international addresses accurately or price total delivery cost.

Shelley Morrisette E-mail Forrester’s Public Relations group

http://www.forrester.com/ER/Press/Talking/0,1773,0,FF.html Digital Decade: Where Are Consumers Going?

North American consumers are gobbling up new technology at an unprecedented rate. Starting with access to the Web in 1994, North America entered the Digital Decade — a 10-year period during which 50% of consumers will adopt a digital lifestyle (see Figure). By 2003, these households will weave

critical technologies — PCs, cellular phones, and the Net – into their lives.


The remainder of the Digital Decade will be marked by five trends:1. The Consumer PC Market Matures

The consumer PC industry will continue to boom in 1999. We expect PC makers to sell 13.2 million units — nearly 4.5 million households will purchase their first computer. But household PC penetration will grow more slowly in the next five years due to market saturation in key segments — high-income optimists — and stabilizing PC prices.

2, Cellular Also Loses Momentum

During the last five years, North American cellular penetration skyrocketed from 15.6% to 42% of households. Like PCs, we expect that growth will slow in this market during the next five

years. By 2003, we estimate that nearly 57% of all North American households will be cellular subscribers. Cost, not technology optimism, drives adoption due to the simplicity of the technology, yet 30% of consumers say they will not purchase a cell phone at any price.

3. The Internet Shows Meteoric Growth

Media hype and positive word of mouth propelled on-line penetration to 33% of North American households in 1998. We predict that the Internet will reach 38% of households by the

end of 1999. On-line penetration will slow by 2001 but will still reach 56% of households by 2003.

4. The Retail Power Shift Begins

Retailing and investing came to the Net in a big way last year. Ten percent of North American households now use the new channel to bank, invest, or purchase products. On-line retail revenue totaled $8 billion in 1998, but the real story lies in the profound change in consumer attitudes, expectations, and


5. The Digital Divide

By 2003, consumers will bifurcate by technology attitude, income, education, and digital lifestyle. One group will constantly turn to the Net from multiple platforms to meet an ever-increasing variety of needs — shopping, banking, investing, education, entertainment, and work. The other group will grudgingly adopt technology when necessary. This divide will exist for 10 years — until Generation Next begins to form new households


 eBusiness Networks: The Frontier Comes Into Focus

eCommerce will reset the business environment –replacing rigid chains with eBusiness networks. As supply and demand are built in to these networks, adoption curves and market cycles will tightly compress. Firms must tune their strategies to build and extract network value more effectively than competitors.


eCommerce gives firms new ways to squeeze cost out of core activities like marketing, order management, and customer service — even offload them to third parties. It also opens the door to a brave new world — dynamic trade — where services overtake goods in value, products are sold before they are built, and prices vary with demand.


But dynamic trade will not occur in today’s business-as-usual environment — it will play out in a new market structure that Forrester calls eBusiness networks, defined as: A resilient fabric of interdependent players linked in real time over the Net.


eBusiness networks will be hothouses for innovation – in business models and in shapes and types of companies — because they will be based on:


Free links. As eBusiness networks grow, interconnecting gets easier and cheaper. Universal connectivity sets the stage for business process standards like RosettaNet that will drive the marginal cost of partner and customer links to zero. As the cost of switching suppliers and distributors plummets, firms’ value-add will come under intense scrutiny, setting the stage for more short-term partnering.


No secrets. In eBusiness networks, transparency overwhelms protectionism. Just as osmosis operates

between cells in living organisms, better business processes migrate across corporate boundaries. As best practices disseminate broadly, or become concentrated in eMarketplaces like SciQuest or Chemdex, the shift to narrower business models — like focusing just on managing information or just on physical plant — and to virtual companies accelerates.


«Nanocycles.» Traditional markets are saddled with high latency between business initiatives and market response. This slow offer/response model crumbles as eBusiness networks compress product life cycles into nanocycles where innovators must leap from the middle of one product cycle to the start of a new one — much as the PC component market operates today. Nanocycles wipe out the later stages of market adoption, short-circuiting the profits firms realize from mature products.


by Stan Dolberg with Ted Schadler, Bruce D. Temkin

http://www.forrester.com/ER/Research/Brief/0,1317,7840,FF.html September 10, 1999 Customer and partners are in eBusiness

Why do eBusiness networks run in nanocycles? Because consumers, business customers, and partners cease to be enigmatic — they’re no longer at arm’s length. Instead, these actors are part of the network, pushing instant feedback about what works and what doesn’t. In this world, firms will have to:


Forget about owning customers. As eBusiness networks emerge, the company-to-customer conversation gets chaotic. This is because the customer is in fact connected to a noisy matrix of third parties — like logistics partners and providers of ancillary services — which are both cooperating and competing to build loyalty and brand equity.


This means that direct customer contact — knowledge of demand — continuously disperses through the network, forcing companies to forget about owning customers and instead learn how to manage rapid cycles of acquisition and loss.


Give up on indenturing partners. Today, firms use the Net to emulate Wal-Mart and coerce suppliers and

distributors to absorb costs like holding inventory. As this dynamic plays out, these partner firms will adopt the business practices of a few high-clout retailers or manufacturers, creating de facto technical and business process standards.


Ironically, as eBusiness networks form, these standards will allow business partners to plug into multiple networks, liberating those same suppliers and distributors to quickly form new affiliations and connections to markets. http://www.forrester.com/ER/Research/Brief/0,1317,7840,FF.html The new focus for companies : Build “network capital”

Traditional companies integrated vertically to build a base of capital and sustain production. To gain real advantage in

eBusiness networks, firms must master the ability to build what Forrester calls network capital — value produced through the network. To build network capital, corporations will have to:


Shape networks for strategic advantage. Companies must bring network-ready assets — for example,

high-value customers, services, intellectual property, access to markets, or aggregated supply — to the party and initiate a cycle where their network attracts new investment and becomes self-sustaining. The best capitalized networks will «float the boats» of all the participants. However, by putting assets in play early, firms will shape the network to serve their own goals.


Extract value from the network. In this new setting, winners will excel not only at creating value in eBusiness networks, but also at extracting it by mastering a new competency — «hyper-partnering.» Hyper-partnering is the practice of quickly and efficiently forming focused networks of partners that can exploit market opportunities. The trick: Keep overhead low when forming these subnetworks, so they can be rapidly disbanded or reconfigured as opportunities dry up or change shape.


Maximize «return on connection.» Firms in eBusiness networks must find new ways to measure and manage their health. Instead of the traditional approach of tracking returns on invested capital, companies must master a new metric — return on connection. While the cost of establishing eBusiness network links is zero, managing the business relationships incurs overhead and opportunity cost. By aggressively focusing on return on connection, companies will highlight and unplug low-productivity relationships before they bring down the network. http://www.forrester.com/ER/Research/Brief/0,1317,7840,FF.html


Government Technology New York Statehttp://www.govtech.net/publications/publications.shtm 7/10-99 

Techology trends


Contents |


Technology Trends for Good Times

Wayne Hanson


Harnessing the Knowledge | Despite its sudden popularity,

knowledge managementÕs role for government agencies. |Blake Harris


The Productivity Paradox | Are computers contributing to productivity growth? |Ciaran Ryan


Online Challenges, Opportunities | Bill Myers is CEO of th U.S. Internet Council. The following is an edited transcript of a speech he gave in March at the State of the States Conference in Virginia. | Bill Myers


Sitting in the Driver’s Seat | You don’t have to buy a PC, thanks to seat management. |Steve Towns


Getting Bigger in Big Sky Country | The Montana Virtual Human Services Pavilion continues to add services for its users. | Bryan M. Gold


Piecing Together The Future | Component-based development cuts costs and saves time by making the most of reusable software. |Brian McDonough


Little Old Lady From Palo Alto | Surf-senior, here she comes! Making the most of life on the Internet. | Joseph Hustein




Contents | AUGUST 1999






Ciaran Ryan  Cover Story




Victor Rivero- David Beier heads the White House Task Force on Electronic Commerce.




Janet Caldow


An aggregated online community portal can emphasize the belief in one-stop shopping.




Ciaran Ryan


E-commerce means the Internet is no longer just the home of the brave.




Ciaran Ryan


North Carolina looks to bull its way to the front of the line for online services.




Rishab Ghosh


Stirred-up production and consumption take on new meanings in the economic world of the Internet.




Bryan M. Gold


Seeking equal representation at the table for the Advisory Commission on Electronic Commerce, local government organizations were successful in their attempts to be heard.




Ciaran Ryan


Just how many eyes are watching as we surf the Internet?




The Advisory Commission on Electronic Commerce, the formation of which was mandated by the passage of the Internet Tax Freedom Act, finally convened June 21 and 22.


  • NEWS


  • EMall Rolls Forward
  • Bar Codes Speed Tax Returns
  • University Procurement
  • West Virginia Eyes
  • Digital State




Goverment Internet guidehttp://www.govtech.net/publications/GIG99/TOC/toc.shtmIntroduction: New Medium is Getting  Large  Wayne Hanson

Best of the Web 1999 Steve Towns

Information Supernova  Ted Karle

The Internet’s Home Sweet Home Ciaran Ryan

Electronic Catalogs – Business of Purchasing Tod Newcombe

Bidding Down Brian McDonough

Progressing Toward Prohibition Brian M. Gold

Tribes Link Up Shane Peterson

Freedom of the Link Reid Goldsborough





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