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5.1 Trends


Intelligence Resource (IR)

Praktisk Intelligence (I)/Business Intelligence (BI)/

OmverdensOvervåking (OO)





Intelligence/Business Intelligence/ OmverdensOvervåking 


Internet Marketing Intelligence

Internett Marketing  

Web utviklingsprossen 

CD/Video utviklingsprossen 

Tips& Triks 



Kunnskapskilden –  Internet Marketing Intelligence

Bench on the pier


Internet Marketing Intelligence




Kunnskapskilden – Internet Marketing Intelligence
Internet Situational Analysis of 1to1 Marketing/CRM


Research Project: Internet Situational Analysis of 1to1 Marketing/CRM  from Jan Vig  at Griffith University , Australia  1999/2000



Chapter 1 Introduction/overview

Chapter 2 Search Strategy

Chapter 3 One to One Marketing and its environment

Chapter 4 Environmental Scan

Chapter 5 Market analysis

Chapter 6 Competitors Analyses

Chapter 7 SWOT

Chapter 8 Critical Success factors

Chapter 9 Segmentation, Customer analysis and target markets

Chapter 10 Business Objectives and Strategies

Chapter 11 Marketing Mix tactics and Conclusions



Chapter 5

Market Analysis



Chapter 5 Market analysis

5.1 Trends

5.1.1 Mega trends

5.1.2 Emerging Web Trends

5.1.3 1999 Web Trends

5.1.4 Where in the world is the Net taking us?

5.1.5 Future.sri.com

5.1.6 Predictions for the Web in 1999

5.1.7 Other trend forecasts

5.1.8 E-Commerce

5.1.9 Trends Technology

5.1.10 Drivers for Change – Consumers

5.1.11 Demographics

5.2 Internet statistics

5.2.1 Internetstatistic.com

5.2.2 E-Marketer STATISTIKK

5.2.3 NUA

5.2.5 Activmedia

5.2.6 Dataquest

5.2.7 Surveyn.Net – Internet User Survey #2

5.2.8 Other Statistik

5.2.9 Web shopping Statistics

5.3 One to One marketing / Relationship marketing

5.3.1 Relationship Marketing

5.3.2 1:1 marketing

5.3.3 Permission marketing

5.3.4 Power tools for 1:1

5.3.6 Critical Questions

5.3.8 The state of one to one online, part II

5.4 Customer care/ customer service

5.4.1 Customer Care Pricewaterhous & Coopers

5.4.2 Customer Relationship Management CRM

5.4.3 Customer service

5.4.4 Collect customer information

5.4.5 Customer service

5.4.6 Internet Customer Service

5.5 Personalization

5.5.1 Personalization: Marketing to one:

5.5.2 There are 4 ways to ad personalization to the web site

5.5.3 Different articles about personalization

5.6 Privacy

5.6.1 Information sources on Internet concerning privacy

5.6.2 Articles about privacy

5.7 Security

5.7.1 Different articles concerning security

5.7.2 NUA Security Issues

5.8 The Market place 1to1 after Peppers & Rogers

5.8.1 Communications and Media

5.8.2 Customer Knowledgebase

5.8.3 Mass Customization

5.8.4 Distribution and Channel

5.8.5 Organizational Structure

5.9 The future of One to One Web Technology

5.9.1 The Future of One-to-One Web Interactivity

5.9.2 The Future of One-to-One E-Mail

5.9.3 The Future of One-to-One Web Site Personalization

5.9.4 The Future of One-to-One Push

5.2.5 The Future of One-to-One Community

5.9.6 The Future of One-to-One Web Presentation and Conferencing

5.9.7 The Future of One-to-One Advertising and Promotion

5.9.8 The Future of One-to-One Web Site Tracking and Analysis

5.9.9 The future of tracking in a word: databases.

5.10 Products and customers

5.10.1 Who is buying what over the Internet?

5.10.2 Customer-business interaction

5.10.3 Business relationships and communications

5.11 Changes in the market place

5.11.1 Drivers of Change

5.11.2 Consumer Behaviour

5.11.3 Industry Response

5.12 Changes in the market response

5.12.1 Product & Service Offering

5.12.2 Relationship Marketing

5.12.3 One to One Marketing

5.12.4 Mass Customisation

5.12.5 Future Delivery Mediums

5.13 Changes in delivery mediums

5.13.1 Post

5.13.2 Fax

5.13.3 CDs and Disks

5.13.4 Kiosks

5.13.5 Pagers and PDAs

5.13.6 Telephones and Smartphones

5.13.7 Interactive TV

5.13.8 Web TV

5.13.9 Internet E-mail

5.13.10 Internet World Wide Web

5.13.11 Proprietory ISPs

5.13.12 Summary







Research Project: Internet Situational Analysis of 1to1 Marketing/CRM  from Jan Vig  at Griffith University , Australia  1999/2000



5.1.1 Mega trends

Read Six Forces Shape the Future of Business for insights into the megatrends of the millennium.



1. Industry Convergence


Consolidation—the combination of like entities in like industries—was the watchword of the ’80s and early

’90s. Today, however, consolidation has given way to convergence, driven primarily by changing relations

between businesses and consumers. Convergence is dissolving the boundaries that traditionally kept certain businesses apart, and is redefining many industries and markets.


What is driving convergence? Customers, empowered by technology. Today, the Internet can bring a

nearly limitless number of sales channels into every household. This two-way electronic pipeline not only

enables businesses to reach far more customers than ever before, it also gives customers means to express their wants and needs, to embrace companies that satisfy them, and to reject those that do not. Their choices are driving and accelerating convergence by compelling businesses to repackage products and services into new offerings.


The Internet offers great opportunity to companies that can change. To others it poses a significant threat.

The Web’s limitless channels are for sellers—but they also let buyers search those channels with ease for the products and services they want at prices they are willing to pay. Therefore, successful companies in converging industries must take steps now to seize the opportunity and neutralise the threat.


First, they must redefine their approach to marketing. Companies can market successfully not by selling a

single product to undifferentiated legions, but by capturing a limited set of individual customers and selling

them a greater quantity of packages tailored to their express needs.


Second, they must fully exploit customer data to gain a better understanding of consumer trends and use it to reconfigure their offerings. The Internet, with its unprecedented ability to capture customer behaviour, is, of course, a rich vein; but savvy companies will also pay closer attention to more traditional sources of

information, such as point-of-sale data, stored in and later mined from conventional data warehouses.


Third, they must become more agile and flexible, and keep a sharper eye on core competencies. Succeeding in converging industries means being able quickly to redefine a business based on customer needs; to refocus capital away from non-core activities; and to use the Internet not only to communicate more quickly

with suppliers and vendors, but also to establish strategic alliances with business partners that add value up and down the supply chain.


Last, and perhaps most important, successful companies in converging industries must be led by courageous decision makers who are on top of their markets, understand their customers, and have the vision to know when even successful businesses have to redefine themselves.


Finally, they must have the courage to act on that knowledge. Their competitors surely will.


2. E-Business


It won’t be long before the «E» in E-Business is gone. It’s inevitable. Electronic business will evolve to such

an extent, and its impact on business will be so pervasive, there will be no further need to distinguish between the two.


E-Business is remaking the business world by:


  • Redefining virtually every business process and function.
  • Changing conventional concepts and rules about strategic alliances, outsourcing, competition, industry specialisation, and customer relationships.
  • Creating a wealth of information about customers, enabling businesses to anticipate and satisfy individual needs with pinpoint precision.
  • Blurring the lines between industries.
  • Challenging every business to reinvent itself.


Cathy Neuman, deputy global E-Business practice leader for PricewaterhouseCoopers, looks up and down the value chain: «Ultimately,» she says, «E-Business will change the definition of «industry» and recast the relationships between businesses.»


«It’s important to recognise how truly different E-Business is from any other development of our time.

Everything that has gone before it has eventually become obsolete.


«E-Business is just the opposite. This time, users will be rendered obsolete if they do not run fast and hard to utilise the new capabilities E-Business delivers.»


How will this happen? The mass migration to an E-Business model will occur in stages. Some companies

have already moved well beyond the first stage—establishing an Internet presence or channel—and they are now actively integrating and connecting the buying and selling processes of their Websites into back office, customer, and marketing systems.


In the next stage, Web capabilities are actively integrated throughout the value chain. Here, customers and suppliers work together to build on-line value chains that improve service and reduce costs.


In the final stages, businesses of all kinds will converge electronically to combine their expertise and provide packaged services. They will push the edge of their current E-Business capabilities to transform their strategies, organizations, processes, and systems so that they can better meet the needs of their customers. The focus here is on building trust.


When this comes about, the boundaries between industries will start to disappear. Companies will unbundle operations and retain only those critical to their market positions. Cross-industry value chains will come together to create networked organisations and markets.


E-Business is an unstoppable, epoch-making idea. Very soon, the name for E-Business is likely to be: business.



3. Knowledge economy

Business is about products and services, and about getting those products and services to customers at a

sensible profit. But this proposition does not do justice to the pivotal role that knowledge has always played, to says nothing about the fact that knowledge is now the most valuable business asset.


The world economy has shifted away from traditional assets towards intellectual assets. Corporate

spending on telecommunications now exceeds aggregate spending. And some three-quarters of the world’s corporate market value resides today in intellectual resources. That explains why companies are increasingly judged by their knowledge assets and their use of those assets to create value.


Executives are only now learning to identify the types of knowledge which, taken together, represent a

dominant asset and an organisational priority. Improved communications technology has highlighted the

importance of creating pathways of clear communication among professionals within an organisation.

Reconsidering the role of knowledge showed what was needed: to connect the top, bottom, middle and

farthest reaches of the organisation more closely still, so that knowledge can be shared quickly, thoroughly, and productively. It also revealed a potential for information overload and crossed signals, absent common terms and agreed-upon strategic focus.


Today, many enterprises are implementing formal Knowledge Management (KM) initiatives, such as

enterprise portals and intranets for sharing knowledge internally, and extranets for sharing knowledge directly with clients and other external stakeholders. Yet marshalling knowledge resources across an enterprise is no easy task. A powerful mix of focus, planning, development, technology and especially, education, is required.


As KM can be applied to every function within an enterprise, implementing a KM programme involves strategy, culture, systems, and human resources. That is why the best initiatives are invariably supported from the top.

The CEO must vigorously articulate the KM vision and demonstrate its significance to the ultimate goal:

usually, the creation of greater shareholder value.


KM initiatives must be tied to specific business issues or strategies and funded for the long haul. A typical

first step: find out where knowledge resides. This can lead to the development of knowledge maps to help

bridge the gap between knowledge resources and work performed. Formal measures to nourish organisational knowledge further characterise winning KM undertakings; initiatives in which full value is created only when new knowledge is created, harvested, shared and continually refined and refreshed.


In the outstanding knowledge enterprise, therefore, leadership recognises the knowledge needs of the

organisation and creates both the «hard» systems and «soft» changes in culture which, taken together, signal the intent to succeed in the knowledge economy of the next millennium.



4. Corporate reporting


Corporate reporting is undergoing a quiet revolution, driven by the demands of global capital markets and

accelerated by the power of new technology. This revolution is having an increasingly profound effect on our clients in many countries and on our own activities as the world’s largest provider of assurance services.


Most obvious in today’s environment of cross-border investment is a need for transparency in global capital markets. PricewaterhouseCoopers is calling for the adoption of a single worldwide capital markets reporting framework—one framework of accounting, and one standard of corporate governance, audit performance, and market regulation across the world. In the many countries where we do business, our partners are working to develop this thinking in national markets and national regulation.


We have also proposed ValueReportingTM—a new kind of corporate reporting that emphasises the future

rather than the past and highlights non-financial as well as financial performance measures. They include

market share, market growth, customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction and new products, as well as the more traditional earnings and cash flow. Increasing numbers of companies from all parts of the world and all industry sectors are adopting reporting concepts and practices that reflect the comprehensive ValueReporting programme.


On another (but related) front we are working with the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants to

assess the implications of XML – Extensible Mark-Up Language – for external reporting. XML, an Internet

language, makes data understandable by any user on any computer platform. It promises to make it easy for analysts and investors to compare companies across a full range of financial and non-financial criteria.



5. Competition for best people

The most intense battle in global business today is not for capital or advanced technology or market share. It is for talent.


Human Resource specialists have been aware of new attitudes in the work force toward what is now widely known as work/life balance. Survey data confirm that employees wish to temper their ambitions for

professional achievement and material reward with greater attention to interests away from the job. This

work/life adjustment is the reflection of a deeper shift, an insistence upon defining one’s own life, priorities,

and choices to a far greater degree than before.


Rejecting old corporate practices, today’s employees have a passion for autonomy—a belief that, given

appropriate training and experience (both of which they will help define), and given substantial latitude, they will make decisions that advance the value of the company while advancing their own interests.


This mentality finds full expression in the new phenomenon of E-Business. The Internet has revolutionised

the customer-supplier relationship, making knowledge and instant information access the focal points for

value, and giving the customer a wealth of alternative choices and vast power to make and revise decisions.


However, few companies have grasped that the employer/employee relationship has become the most

important of all customer-supplier relationships. In a tight labour market, the level of intimacy and

personalisation of the customer/supplier relationship is becoming decisive. The degree to which the employerrecognises that each employee is a market of one, a unique customer, will substantially determine that employer’s fortunes in the competition for talent.


Accepting the new culture and adapting to the new relationship will help attract talent, but will not guarantee retention.. Today’s employer must provide its talent with the opportunity for both wealth accumulation and knowledge accumulation. The more employees earn and the more they know, the more independent and mobile they become—and the more attractive to other employer/suppliers.


Conversely, employees provide knowledge to the employer about their education, training, experience, skills, learning, developmental needs, and lifestyle choices. With this information, the employer can improve the personalisation of its relationship with employees, keep it full of reward and opportunity, demonstrate respect for the employee’s autonomy—and stay attuned to the marketplace for new talent.


This requires a combination of powerful technology, application of the knowledge base derived from the use of that technology, and recognition that traditional employment cultures and the laws that support them are becoming outmoded. The Internet has made personalisation a possibility; to win the battle for top talent, employers must make it a necessity.



6. New Europe

Europe is changing. And businesses are rethinking their strategies to become more efficient, aggressive

competitors across the increasingly integrated European market.


The record levels and adversarial nature of merger and acquisitions activity in Europe are among the more obvious indicators of the future shape of New Europe:


  • As privatisation and market liberalisation open up new markets on a pan-European basis, many global companies are merging their way to even greater size and expertise. Case in point: the historic merger that created DaimlerChrysler.
  • While regulatory harmonisation will help to increase competition and encourage new entry, industry sectors are consolidating across borders and building huge international organisations that promise to be leading competitors. Cases in point: the mergers of Olivetti and Telecom Italia, of Vodafone and AirTouch.
  • As the development of pan-European capital markets produces investment portfolios built around sectors rather than countries, cross-border finance will be increasingly managed by just a few dozen pan-European financial institutions. Case in point: the Deutsche Bank bid for Bankers Trust.


The European Union and national governments across Europe continue to be important agents of change.

Enlargement of the European Union to include additional member states is a real prospect in the short term. Greater economic integration and regulatory co-ordination are being considered, too, as a further push to complete the single market is made.


What will the new Europe look like in 2010?


A recent PricewaterhouseCoopers publication, Waving or Drowning? Four Scenarios for New Europe to 2010, explores the key social, technological, economic, environmental, and political uncertainties of the New Europe under four scenarios.


While «Golden Triangle,» is built on a powerfully positive interaction between steady economic growth,

open markets, and technological advance, each subsequent scenario adds progressively more negative

feedback loops.


«On The Edge» refers to strong but highly unstable growth, driven by breakneck technological progress and fierce competition.


In «The Last Castle,» governments are assumed to slam on the regulatory and protectionist brakes as public opinion revolts against rising economic instability and insecurity.


And finally, «Drowning Spires» assumes accelerating climate change, social unrest, economic disruption

and green politics in the ascendant.


These scenarios do not aim to be predictions of the future. Rather, our purpose is to map the possible terrain ahead and to stimulate strategic thinking by organisations and individuals.


The drivers of change operating across Europe today are unprecedented. They pose strategic challenges

and create new opportunities for all participants in European business, wherever headquartered. Our scenarios suggest businesses should aim for a broad strategic approach with four key elements:


  • Global reach and geographical diversification of economic risk
  • Operational flexibility—»small is beautiful» even in the largest companies
  • Local presence—to avoid trade barriers and guarantee a voice in public policy debates
  • Heightened environmental awareness and investment.


The New Europe will offer enormous opportunities to businesses that prepare well for the changes ahead.

Those who do not will be exposed to increasing risks and unforeseen threats.



5.1.2  Emerging Web Trends


Web time is compressed time. Today in the on-line world, a Web year is considered 3 months. This means that the Web completely evolves every three months. The conventional wisdom held true just three months ago can

easily become obsolete. Because of this compressed time frame, Web trends are very difficult to track or anticipate.


However, I am going to give it my best shot.


Listed below are 13 Web trends that I believe will start to emerge in 1999 and 2000. 

1. Goodbye Middleman

Innovative Web companies are entirely cutting out the middleman. In industries such as new car sales,

insurance, stocks, and travel the middleman is bypassed. Companies like Auto-by-Tel (new car sales), LifeQuote (insurance), eSchwab (stocks), and Travelocity (travel), are adding enormous value to the buying process while connecting buyers with sellers. Let’s look at Auto-by-Tel. Car Dealerships pay $40K/year to get hot sales leads (including name, address, wants, finance info) from 75,000 Auto-by-Tel Web customers. Auto-by-Tel claims that 30% of the qualified leads given to dealerships results in a sale. Wow! Customers love Auto-by-Tel because they get a good deal, a no haggle price, more attention from the dealer, and a quicker delivery of their car. Today 1% of car sales are sold this way. By late 1999, 10% of car sales will go through sites like Auto-by-Tel.



2) Neighborhood Web

The fastest growing segment of the Web will be local markets. Sure, everybody knows that the Web is global by nature, but it CAN and WILL be used to support small local businesses and local interests. By 1999, your local dry cleaners, restaurants, and schools will have Websites.


3) Giving Up On Portals

Portals are a hot today. Every company wants to be a portal in its industry. Portals will continue to attract Net companies, advertisers and traditional media. However, my prediction here is that most companies will abandon their portal business strategy in 1999 because its simply too costly to compete for consumer clicks. They will find other ways to drive traffic to their sites that are less costly.


4) Surfing While Watching

Surfing while watching TV will become a consumer trend in 1999. More and more people will watch TV while surfing the Net at the same time. Their goals is to quench their insatiable information hunger about the TV program that they are watching. For instance, during the World Series, people will browse World Series information sites for deeper real-time information during the game. What is the San Diego pitchers’ salary? When was he born? What is San Diego’s complete batting lineup? Who is on the injured list? etc.

5) Leaner Business Websites

Business Website developers will FINALLY get the message in 1999 that «less is more». Page loading speeds will become more important than fancy graphics and multimedia. This trend will be driven by a growing number of Web users who have become less impatient while waiting for their screen to load – «Just give me the information that I came for!» In 1999, we will see more business Websites emulate the Yahoo look by trading off graphics for text. (for speed solutions read «Speed vs. Graphics»


6) Mobile Web

This is the next killer app on the Web – portable Web-enabled computers + wireless phones. Think about the power of Web access from anywhere. Initially, most applications will not be properly appreciated by either businesses or the media, but they will be. Enjoy this killer app when it emerges in1999.


7) From Intranets to Extranets

Intranets are the greatest quiet success story on the Web so far. Intranets are streamlining business processes and saving companies millions of dollars. Extranets will be the next great quiet success story on the Web. We will see businesses in every industry start to open up Web-enabled communications directly with their suppliers and customers. The power of these quiet Extranets will emerge in 1999.


8) Affiliate Marketing

Amazon invented it and more will copy it 1999. Affiliate marketing empowers others to do your marketing for you. Amazon now has 50,000 associates that account for 25% of its sales. Others trying to capitalize on affiliate marketing include Barnes & Noble, Spree.com, Natural Body Bar, CDNow (Columbia House), Swiss Army Depot (knives), and Shades.com (sunglasses).


9) Custom Pricing

Custom pricing is about letting each individual customer decide what he/she will pay. In America, we blindly pay the sticker price, whereas, the rest of the world «haggles» over prices. Americans are not yet comfortable with this Web trend of custom pricing – but they will warm up to it by 1999. Some of the leaders in custom pricing are the online auction companies (OnSale, EBay) and the travel companies (TravelBids.com, PriceLine.com). Online Web auctions will account for $1B in 1998. More industries will realized this opportunity in 1999.


10) Search Frustration

Finding information on the Web will become more difficult, not easier. The anticipated new 5.0 browsers from Microsoft and Netscape will not simplify searching. And more and more novice users will join the Web in 1999.


11) Personalized Everything

More sites will offer a customized experience for the user based on his/her wishes. The portals (Yahoo, Excite, etc) who started this trend will be followed by many large consumer sites. Companies will see personalization as a way to get repeat visits. Don’t be surprised if some national newspapers like USA TODAY offer local news versions.


12) Home Banking

The home banking trend will double to almost 10 million households by the end of 1999. All of the national banks will scramble to offer home banking in order to avoid losing their existing customers and to gain new customers. Don’t be passed by. Call your local bank to see if they plan to offer home banking.


13) Continued Slowness

Our two favorite browsers (Explorer and Navigator) will continue to be obese and slow. At the same time, Web developers will continue to try to cram more multimedia content into your browser. The promise of cable modems will not solve the speed problem for most users. Cable modems will give many a needed boost in speed in isolated areas in the country. Either surf with your graphics turned off or learn to be patient.



5.1.3 1999 Web Trends



1. Onsite Retail Web Resources

In 1999, don’t be surprised when you walk into a Wal-Mart and see a Web kiosk dedicated to you – the customer. In 1999, many retail shops will realize that they can offer better customer support with live Web terminals in the stores, and  at the same time reduce staffing.


2) Blending of Web with Other Entertainment Media

Surfing while watching TV will become a consumer trend in 1999. Heavy Web users will start watching their favorite NFL game while clicking for deeper game information in real-time. Already, we see TV sports anchors pointing us to URLs for more information «during» the big game. If you don’t believe me, read how interactive TV viewers maxed out the Fiesta Bowl Website during the game < http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB19990105S0015  >. Also, look for new interactive live TV/Web shows where audiences vote and control the course of the TV program.


3) The Customer Decides the Price

Many predicted that the Web would eliminate middlemen such as stock brokers, travel agents, and real estate agents. Many of these traditional middlemen will disappear, however, many new innovative middlemen will emerge. These new middlemen will use the Web to put potential buyers and sellers together in creative ways. This turns the customer/supplier relationship upside-down. Take a look at < http://www.priceline.com  > where leisure travelers determine what they are willing to pay for a flight, then airlines bid on the business. Priceline is about to impact the hotel business also. The online auction companies like EBay are essentially doing the same thing http://www.ebay.com . How can your business profit by using the Web to allow customers to participate in your pricing?


4) Mobile Web


The Mobile Web will be the Killer App of 1999 and 2000. Fasten your seatbelt. Innovative uses of mobile Web applications will emerge with wireless modems. In 1999, we will begin to see the Web EVERYWHERE. It will not be uncommon to see attorneys, surgeons, construction workers, and others using the Web to get vital information just in time to increase their effectiveness during the work day. Use your imagination a bit. How could your business improve by putting Web-based information into your workers hands EVERYWHERE?


5) Portal Shakeout

How many portals can the Web sustain? Will Yahoo win? Who will merge with whom? (possible deals are:

Yahoo/TimeWarner, Yahoo/CBS, Citigroup/E*trade, Wells Fargo/E*trade, NBC/CNET/Snap, Infoseek/Lycos). Will the niche mini-portals eventually eclipse the everything-in-one-place portals such as Yahoo? Nobody knows the answers to these questions, but by 2000 the Portal winners will emerge. Point your browser at < http://www.webtomorrow.com/portals.htm  > to read about the 10 largest portals competing for you eyeballs.


6) eCommerce Broadens

We all witnessed the eCommerce surge during the 1998 holidays. Thousands of businesses each day are starting to sell products/services through the Web. eCommerce will BOOM in 1999. By the end of 1999, half of US Internet users will make an on-line purchase.


7) Demographics Shift to Women and Outside US

By the end of 1999, more women than men will be on-line. Businesses will start to realize this and market more to women. Look for more clothing, jewelry, travel, and health advertising. Also in 1999, more Internet users will be outside the US than in the US.


8) Y2K – Not a Web problem

Few Y2K problems will be Web-related. Other than some problems with early browser versions, the Web is largely immune to Y2K problems.


9) No Microsoft Breakup

The Department of Justice will not break up Microsoft. At some point in 1999, the anti-trust suit against Microsoft will be over. The software giant will be slapped with big fines, but the company will remain intact – browser and all. Internet Explorer will continue to be the standard. IE will continue to slow push away Netscape and Linux.


See any Web Trends that we missed?  drop us a note at missedtrends@webtomorrow.com and we’ll add it to our list and give you credit.



5.1.4  Where in the world is the Net taking us?



Cyberfuturist Chuck Martin has answers, and he’s sharing them in his new book, Net Future: The Seven Cybertrends That Will Drive Your Business, Create Wealth, and Define Your Future.

Trend #1: The Cybereconomy is going Main Street.Trend #2: The Wired Workforce Takes Over.Trend #3: The Open Book Corporation Emerges.Trend #4: Products Become Commodities.Trend #5: The Customer Becomes Data.
We used to measure customers based on their current sale and projected sale. In the future we’re going to start to look at using those customers for what I call ‘Predictive Value,’ so that we can put them into a very large database and start using data mining or other recommendation systems to determine what people are going to want as products of the future or services of the future and then start to create those products and services so that they are more valuable to the customer. Trend #6: The Rise of Experience Communities

Trend #7: Learning Moves to Real Time, All the Time. 



5.1.5     Future.sri.com


The Business Intelligence Center is dedicated to managing the complexity of information confronting today’s enterprise and creating frameworks that enable decision making processes for our clients.


Hybrid Online/On-Land Strategies for Internet Commerce is the latest report from

the BIC’s Business Intelligence Program. http://future.sri.com/BIP/BIP.index.shtml


5.1.6 Predictions for the Web in 1999


Jakob Nielsen’s Alertbox for December 27, 1998:



1. Mobile Access to the Internet Two related predictions: When you are online at all times and can be reached anywhere, privacy becomes precious. Users will pay extra for screening services that allow them a respite from the world. Being out of touch will be seen as a status symbol.  A portable device has to be small for users to be willing to carry it around, so Web designers have to stop designing for a fixed size screen. Instead, Web pages must scale and work on many different sizes of display. No more frequently-asked-question: «Should I design for 640 or 800 pixels?»2. Automated Customer Service
Customer service is an area where the Web can be better than reality since customers are getting ever more dissatisfied with the service they get in the physical world: the American Customer Satisfaction Index for the retail sector has dropped from 76 in 1994 to 71 in 1998 (on a 1-100 scale).


5.1.7  Web Trends tracked by WebTomorrow



Trend  Status  Notes     last modified:
August 03, 1999
Goodbye Middleman getting stronger Although stockbrokers and travel agents are in jeopardy, new middlemen such as eBay and Priceline are being invented.
Digital eCommerce slow starting Selling of digital «goods» (music, videos, software, etc.) will surpass selling of physical goods (books, CDs, etc.) once security and anti-pirating solutions become available.
Shopping Bots getting stronger As the Web starts to resemble a mall with a million stores, customers have more and more                                                     trouble «shopping». To the rescue come personal shopping agents like Jango and MySimon.
PersonalizedEverything getting stronger One day each individual surfer will see something different at the same Website.  One day,  one-to-one marketing will become a reality on the Web.
Neighborhood Web getting stronger Now, small businesses can easily afford a Website presence. Here come the barber shops and bakery Websites.
Portal Domination getting weaker The Portal Wars will continue in 1999. Survival of the strongest or those who acquire or merge quickly. In general, «do everything» portals will yield to vertical portals like weather.com and mapquest.com.
Surfing WhileWatching  getting stronger The big media companies like CBS or CNN will start to merge TV entertainment with Web entertainment at the same time. The sports media is leading this innovation – Pro sports with on-line support during the game.
Leaner BusinessWebsites getting stronger Some business sites are getting leaner, but many are getting fatter. Read the secrets to Yahoo’s lean site.
Mobile Web getting stronger Perhaps the killer app of 1999 and 2000.From Internets to Intranets to Extranets quietly stronger The quiet side of the Web is business-to-business customer/supplier Intranets andExtranets.
Affiliate Marketing maxing out Others are finding that Amazon’s affiliates strategy is more difficult to copy than first Imagined
Custom Pricing getting stronger Upside down economy. The customer determines what he will pay. Watch Priceline.com and Accompany.
Search Frustration getting stronger Too many search engines that are too difficult to use.
Home Banking slowly emerging Customers like it, but the banks like it even more (less costs per transaction).
Slower Surfing leveled off Cable modems are relieving some speed problems for some people. Streaming video and heavy graphics remains a problem
Web in Retail Shops slowly emerging Retail shops can hire less people and offer more customer support with Web terminals in the shop.




5.1.7 Other trend forecasts


zdnet – Internet Trends some time ago


Berst Alert  TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1998 Revealed: Your Internet Future Forecast the most important Internet developments.




Top trends for IT in 1999

By Eric Lundquist, PC Week Online  December 9, 1998 10:28 AM PT



Predictions for 1999: Pyrrhic victories abound By Bill Laberis 12/14/98



5.1.8 E-Commerce


Global Electronic Commerce http://www.doc.gov/ecommerce/framewrk.htm International Sites on Electronic Commerce Policy http://www.doc.gov/ecommerce/internat.htm Observatory on the Information Society—UNESCO http://www.unesco.org/webworld/observatory/index.html(United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization)


Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): Recent

studies of interest.



Customers Migrate Online EU Retailers Must Secure Customers As They Move Online Or Lose Them To US Players Chasing The EUR18.6bn That Consumers Will Spend Online in 2003  http://www.jup.com/ Consumer & Business Research



IDC Expects Multiple PC Home Office Households to Reach 12.1 Million by 2002

Home Networking Poised to Explode: 6 Million Nodes to Ship in 1999


Gender Gap Impacts E-Commerce  Retailing

Different E-Commerce Tendencies of Men and Women


Percentage of Internet Purchasers 

  Computer                                                      Software Clothing  Computer                                                                  Hardware Electronics 
Males  28.6% 6.6% 18.7% 7.7%
Females  9.7% 26.4% 8.3% 1.4%

Source: The Strategic Group June 4, 1999

According to Strategis consultant Matt Page, this shift away from technology-oriented men as the mainstream Internet user should serve as a wake-up call to companies doing business over the Internet.


«Companies advertising online and doing e-business will fall behind unless they understand how this shift toward more females and more mainstream users overall will affect them,» Page said.

37 Million PCs Used for E-Commerce http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/demographics/article/0,1323,6061_153871,00.html



PCs Used for E-Commerce Activity (number of PCs in millions)

  January 1999  January 1998  Percent Increase 
E-commerce purchases  20.1 11.6 72%
Electronic commerce activities(including financial transactions)  26.0 16.3 60%
Shopping activities only  29.7 21.8 36%
Electronic commerce and related activities(including shopping)  37.2 26.4 41%

Source: InfoBeads 


Online Consumer Electronic Sales to Soar http://cyberatlas.internet.com/markets/retailing/article/0,1323,6061_153501,00.htmL The Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association (CEMA) has released a study indicating that Internet sales of traditional consumer technologies to online households should reach at least $14 billion by 2002, representing 13 percent of total industry volume.


Internet, Stores Work Together http://cyberatlas.internet.com/markets/retailing/article/0,1323,6061_154001,00.htmL
Research done by the Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association (CEMA) found that nearly 60 percent of online shoppers are using both established retail stores and the Internet in most of their product purchases.


Concerns Don’t Slow E-Commerce http://cyberatlas.internet.com/markets/retailing/article/0,1323,6061_153541,00.htmL
Privacy concerns still lead the list of issues effecting e-commerce according to a nationwide study,but most online consumers have put their fears aside.
A national poll of 1,000 Americans found that 13 percent of those polled indicated they have no
fears about electronic commerce. The most popular concern was «privacy and security,» which was
cited by 53 percent of the sample. Twenty percent cited the inability to inspect products closely over
the Internet, 6.4 percent said they didn’t know how to shop online or it was too complicated, and 3
percent don’t like to wait for delivery.
«While consumers may have concerns about shopping online, these concerns have not affected their shopping habits,» said NetZero CEO Ronald Burr. «The value and convenience that shopping with mouse and modem provides far out weigh any security downside.»


Is the Mall in Trouble? http://cyberatlas.internet.com/markets/retailing/article/0,1323,6061_153801,00.htmL
A major shopping study has found that 39 percent of those with access to the Internet spend less time at the mall and local stores because they can easily buy products online.
The Internet has overtaken the mall and catalogs as the point of purchase for computer software, according to the «Shopping 2000» study by Greenfield Online. While the tendency to window shop online is about the same as at local stores (70 percent vs. 71 percent), the Internet still trails local stores (49 percent vs. 68 percent) as the place where online shoppers make their software purchases.


Shop Before You Buy Shoppers Do Homework on the Web http://cyberatlas.internet.com/markets/retailing/article/0,1323,6061_153821,00.htmL
The role that online information plays in the purchasing decisions of Internet shoppers was highlighted recently in research done by NetSmart Research.
The company found that 62 percent of those surveyed said that information they found online directly influenced their retail purchases. Half of those surveyed turned to the Net for information first when they planned a major purchase or investment. Just under half (49 percent) go online without a brand in mind. For the breakdown of the survey respondents who did online research and then purchased, see the table.


Online Retail Revenue Up 300 Percent http://cyberatlas.internet.com/markets/retailing/article/0,1323,6061_153351,00.htmL
In the past year, retail, entertainment, and other Web sites catering to consumers (half of all online business sites) have been the fastest-growing category on the Web, according to ActivMedia.
Average monthly sales revenue (among retail sites that generated revenue) now stands at $40,273, up from $13,260 at the same point in 1997.



Fasten Your Seatbelt E-Commerce Application Market Blasts Off
Revenue in the worldwide Internet commerce application market, which soared 154 percent to $444 million in 1998, will jump another 280 percent to $1.7 billion in 1999, according to International Data Corporation (IDC).


IDC’s report splits market into three segments: Internet commerce sales and marketing applications; Internet commerce procurement and order management applications; and Internet commerce customer service and support applications. Procurement and order management applications will consistently provide the biggest opportunities for vendors, according to IDC. By 2003, this segment will account for $8.5 billion of the market’s overall $13.1 billion.
37 Million PCs Used for E-Commerce
More than 37 million PCs have been used for e-commerce and related activities as of January 1999, according to research by Ziff-Davis’ InfoBeads. The activities ranged from purchasing products and services to financial transactions and shopping.


E-Commerce Software Market Blossoms http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/hardware/article/0,1323,5921_151691,00.htmL
By the end of 2002, $2.8 billion will have been spent worldwide on e-commerce software, according to the report «Global E-Commerce Software Markets» by Datamonitor.  The report also found that 78 percent of this total will derive from from investment in distribution channel management, online procurement, and supply chain management (business-to-business e-commerce solutions). Business-to-consumer e-commerce, which in 1997 made up 41 percent of e-commerce software revenues, will in 2002 account for just 22 percent.


Consumer E-Commerce Revenues to Hit $18 Billion in 1999
US consumer e-commerce revenues will grow to $18.6 billion by the end of 1999, a 615 percent increase from 1997, according to eMarketer’s eRetail Report.
According to the report, business-to-consumer e-commerce in the US accounts for almost one-quarter of total e-commerce worldwide today.


CyberAtlas: Professional: Internet Services Spending to Surge http://www.cyberatlas.com/market/professional/spend.html
Internet Services Spending to Surge Revenues in the worldwide Internet services market grew an impressive 71 percent in 1998 to reach $7.8 billion, according to a report by International Data Corp.


CyberAtlas: Professional: Small Firms Realizing Net’s Potential
Small Firms Realizing Net’s Potential A survey of business executives from across the Southeast US found that small business owners see their potential 1999 income from Internet activity doubling from 1998.


CyberAtlas: Retailing: Online Consumers Getting More Savvy
Online Consumers Getting More Savvy Merchants Must Work to Satisfy Shoppers Online shoppers are becoming more sophisticated and more savvy,according to results of the BizRate.com Consumer Fulfillment Index (CFI). The index represents data collected from consumer surveys gathered at thepoint of purchase from June 1997 to January 1999.



CyberAtlas: Retailing: E-Commerce Not the Whole Story
E-Commerce Not the Whole Story Profitability Will Come From Other Sectors US e-commerce revenues will grow to between $580 and $970 billion by the year 2002, according to Giga Information Group , but other types of Internet interaction such as Web-based marketing, customer service, and procurement will be even greater sources of profitability for companies.


CyberAtlas: Retailing: Gender Gap Effects E-Commerce
Gender Gap Impacts E-Commerce Females have narrowed the «Internet Gender Gap» from 21 percent to only 8 percent in less than two years, according to a recent report, and the demographic change is impacting what type of goods are purchased online.


Consumer Online Purchasing Climbs http://cyberatlas.internet.com/markets/retailing/article/0,1323,6061_201071,00.html


E-Commerce Sales Follow Offline Patterns http://cyberatlas.internet.com/markets/retailing/article/0,1323,6061_200631,00.html

UK Users Making Better Connections http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/geographics/article/0,1323,5911_191461,00.html

Half of US College Students Prepared to Surf Internet http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/demographics/article/0,1323,5901_158251,00.html

Home PC Usage Stagnates http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/demographics/article/0,1323,5901_150021,00.html

ADSL Modem Shipments: 1 Million in 1999 http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/hardware/article/0,1323,5921_185981,00.html

As Internet Matures, So Does Its Users http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/demographics/article/0,1323,5901_150151,00.html

More People Online Without PCs http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/demographics/article/0,1323,5901_150271,00.html

More Parents, Families Online http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/demographics/article/0,1323,5901_150291,00.html

Internet Becoming a Daily Essential http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/demographics/article/0,1323,5901_150321,00.html E-Commerce Outlook – Opinions & Trends


Information Privacy: The Other Side Of The E-commerce Coinhttp://ecommerce.internet.com/
As an e-business owner, collecting private information from customers is a normal part of your daily operations. What many e-business owners don’t realize is that it’s their moral duty – and increasingly, their legal responsibility – to respect their customer’s privacy. This week, we go over a series of steps to guide you in developing internal policies for responsible information handling practices throughout your e-business. [September 24]


Drilling Down the Customer
Aiming to crack the customer code and translate the browsing and buying habits of online shoppers into e-commerce dollars, many e-tailers are turning to usage-analysis software as an alternative to traffic measurement services, such as Media Metrix or Nielsen//NetRatings. [September 23]


Holiday Sales Could Lift Online Spending http://ecommerce.internet.com/
Consumers will spend $6 billion online during the months of November and December 1999, up from $3.1 billion spent duringthe same period in 1998, according to research by Jupiter Communications. –CyberAtlas  [September 22]


20 Percent of Consumers Have Online Ordering Problems http://ecommerce.internet.com/
In about one-third of the 37 million US households having access to the Internet, lives at least one person who placed an order or made a reservation online from February to April of 1999, according to
Dataquest Inc., a unit of the Gartner Group. Of these households, 2.4 million, or 20 percent, experienced problems. –CyberAtlas [September 16]


EC TECH ADVISOR Too Much Technology Can Make You Blind  http://ecommerce.internet.com/ What e-commerce entrepreneurs don’t realize is that they’re getting side-tracked by the latest and greatest technology. Unless their business is technology — and for the vast majority of those I talk to it isn’t — they’re taking their eyes off the ball. [September 15]


Study: Internet Leads in B-to-B Sales Growth  http://ecommerce.internet.com/ec-news/article/0,1281,5061_207121,00.html  [September 24, 1999] The Internet is the fastest- growing business-to-business direct marketing medium, according to a newly updated study commissioned by The Direct Marketing Association (DMA) and conducted by The WEFA Group Inc.  «Direct marketing is being revolutionized by business-to-business marketing on the Internet,» said H. Robert Wientzen, president and CEO of the DMA.

«While B-to-B sales are growing in each of the major direct marketing media at a very healthy clip, this growth pales in comparison to business sales generated specifically by the Internet.» The study predicts that by 2004, total B-to-B direct marketing sales will surpass $1 trillion and eight million Americans will be employed as a result.  Direct marketing business-to-business sales growth continues to outpace overall U.S. business-to-business growth, the study found.  From 1994-1999, direct marketing sales to business grew 11 percent per year, almost twice the growth of total annual U.S. business sales growth of 5.6 percent.  Business sales generated by direct marketing are projected to grow 10.3 percent annually from 1999-2004, versus 6 percent annual growth in overall business-to-business sales.  The data is from the study «1999 Economic Impact: U.S. Direct Marketing Today,» commissioned by the DMA to be released in October and available for purchase at the site.


WebSideStory Delivers eData Mining Resource http://ecommerce.internet.com/ec-news/article/0,1281,5061_207141,00.html  [September 24, 1999] Internet tracking and traffic analysis company WebSideStory released StatMarket eData Mining, calling it «the most powerful source for real-time e-commerce data available.»  The company said the move reflects a broad industry shift from complicated and often inaccurate software-based log file analysis to Web-based visitor profiling.  StatMarket eData Mining translates raw Web site data into useful information on visitor trends and behavior patterns. With StatMarket, the Web is part of the machine, the company said. No special hardware or software is required.


US consumer buying on Internet retail sites  http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  rebounded in August after a slight decline in July, according to PC Data Online. PC Data’s latest figures for Web purchasing among US households show an average of 4.5 percent of visitors to the top 40 online retail sites purchased items in August, returning to June levels after dropping to 3.2 percent in July. –CyberAtlas  [September 15]


Consumer Purchasing Climbs http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html Twelve months ago, just over half of the people on the Internet were making purchases. Now, three-quarters are buying and 82 percent of these are filling their online shopping carts with multiple purchases, according to Greenfield Online. –CyberAtlas  [September 15]


Consumer Opinions Online: Expect E-Tailer Impact

http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  Think Consumer Reports meets About.com. Internet start-up Epinions.com this week launched its free online shopping guide, which provides users access to product reviews by experts, links to more reviews on other Web sites, and unbiased consumer opinions that give fellow buyers the skinny on must-have merchandise or those items best left out of the shopping cart.  [September 10] 


August Results Released in NextCard eCommerce http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  Index Internet credit-card start-up NextCard Inc. Tuesday issued results for the month of August, 1999’s eCommerce Index, which ranks the top 25 Web sites according to transactions conducted by its 100,000 cardholders every month, in an effort to determine where e-shoppers are making their interactive purchases. [September 7]

E-Commerce Faces Logistics Nightmare http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  As online orders from consumers and businesses soar past the 2 billion per year mark, Internet sellers will be faced with logistics chaos, according to a report by Forrester Research. –CyberAtlas [August 27]


Overseas E-Commerce to Equal Half of Global Spending By 2003 http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  According to researchers International Data Corp., nearly 60 percent of the worldwide online audience comes from outside the U.S. and that population will generate nearly 46 percent of global e-com spending by 2003, up from 1998 levels of just 26 percent.  [August 25]


Customer Support: It’s All or Nothing http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  Slick ads, unbeatable discounts, and one-click ordering don’t mean a thing if you’ve got lousy customer service. [August 24]


iPIN Offers New Digital Payment System http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  iPIN recently unveiled its new global payment system designed for Internet service and content providers. The new service enables Web users to buy digital content and services over the Internet by adding purchase charges to consumer’s monthly ISP bills. The service will officially go live this fall.  [August 16]


Consumers to E-Tailers: Don’t Kiss and Tell http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  The No. 1 reason among online users who have yet to make an e-commerce purchase: lack of trust. In a new survey, a staggering 69.4 percent of reluctant e-shoppers cited fear that personal information would not be kept private by e-tailers as the major reason they shy away from purchasing via the Internet.  [August 16]


Brave New E-Tail: Aggregate Buying Sites http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  Internet pioneers Paul Allen and Marc Andreessen made headlines recently as they came forward to support, both verbally as well as financially, a couple of new e-commerce sites that are based on a new business model: online aggregate buying. The concept of aggregate buying sounds revolutionary and exciting — but can e-merchants get the public to buy into it?  [August 11]


E-Tailers Cannibalize Offline Sales http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  Attention retailers: if you haven’t set up an Internet presence, you’re not only missing the boat, you’re losing valuable market share and sales to your e-tail competitors.  [August 4]


E-Commerce 101

http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  September is right around the corner, so you may be considering your educational options and be interested in exploring learning more about electronic commerce. Several colleges and universities across the country have added e-comm courses to their curriculum, aimed not only at business students, but for anyone who wants to keep up with this growth industry, and its’ effects on everyday life. [July 23]


Uniform E-Commerce Standards Proposed http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  A new initiative, the Standard for Internet Commerce, was launched today by a coalition of more than 200 e-commerce industry leaders and publishers Ziff-Davis, proposing that e-tailers practice a set of merchant practices and policies.  [July 12]


Sites Fail on Customer Follow-Up, Lose Sticky Appeal http://ecommerce.internet.com/opinions/0,1220,,00.html  A recently released study of 50 leading e-commerce sites points to dramatic, but preventable losses suffered by e-tailers because they neglect to follow-up with consumers after a purchase is completed. [July 6] IDC – Market Data & Insights


Electronic Data Interchange Market Teeters on the Brink of Transformation


The Internet superhighway will take the electronic data interchange (EDI) market in a new direction. Despite revenue growth of almost 18% in 1998, the market is rapidly reaching full maturity and is on the brink of transformation. This is a key finding from International Data Corporation’s (IDC’s) new report, Reinventing EDI: Electronic Data Interchange Services Market Review and Forecast, 1998-2003.



Non-U.S. Internet Commerce to Account for Almost Half of Worldwide Spending by 2003, IDC Reports http://www.idc.com/Data/default.htm

After a strong debut in the United States, ecommerce is rapidly spreading beyond U.S. boundaries and going global. Market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) reports by yearend, almost 60% of the world’s online population will reside outside the United States, and non-U.S. Internet commerce will explode from 26% of worldwide ecommerce spending in 1998 to 46% by 2003. click for more



IDC Expects Worldwide Internet Commerce Procurement Application Market Will Explode to $5 Billion by 2003 http://www.idc.com/Data/default.htm

At $147 million,T the worldwide Internet commerce procurement applications market reached $147 million in 1998 and was nowhere near even $1 billion in 1998, but blistering growth will drive revenues to a staggering $5.34 billion by as soon as 2003. This incredible jump represents a compound annual growth rate of 105%. This data comes from Internet Commerce Procurement Application Market Review, Forecast, and User Trends, 1998-2003, a new report from International Data Corporation (IDC). click for more


IDC Reports 21 Million New Groupware Software Users Worldwide in First-Half 1999


In the first half of 1999, integrated collaborative environment (ICE) software, commonly referred to as

groupware software, topped 21 million new users worldwide according to estimates from International Data Corporation (IDC). Microsoft took the lead in U.S., rest of world, and overall worldwide markets while Lotus retained the lead in Europe and Asia/Pacific markets. click for more


The Season For Holiday Shopping


July 19, 1999 There are only 160 days until Christmas and just 139 days until Chanukah.

This warning in not intended for holiday shoppers, but rather merchants who plan to cash in on this year’s online holiday shopping bonanza. IDC estimates that US online consumer holiday spending will reach nearly $7 billion, more than double the holiday spending from just last year.


IDC’s advice to online merchants: spend August and September preparing to handle the rush of holiday shoppers, http://www.idc.com/Data/default.htm

many of who will be making purchases online for the first time. It will be critical to develop a marketing message aimed at the more than 10 million US Internet users who had never made an online purchase prior to 1999.


While consumer spending will double, the number of online merchants is expected to triple over last year. Santa will quickly find out who has built reliable, scaleable eCommerce systems capable of handling the increase in transactions. And if an online merchant can’t deliver my Furby in time, they won’t get a second

chance. Paul Johnson, Senior Research Analyst



Internet Commerce Will Rocket to More Than $1 Trillion by 2003


Explosive growth of the Internet will thrust Internet purchases sky high. In recent market research, The amount of commerce conducted over the World Wide Web will top a staggering $1 trillion by 2003. click for more


Collaborative Software Market Still Growing Rapidly


Use of network/Web integrated collaborative environment (ICE) software, also known as groupware, leaped to 84 million users and $2.1 billion in revenues worldwide in 1998, according to IDC’s new report, Collaborative Applications Software Market Review and Forecast. IDC expects this segment to grow to $2.6 billion in revenues worldwide by 2003. While the email-only software market for enterprises slowed as the result of displacement by ICE solutions, group calendaring/scheduling and real-time (data) conferencing software markets grew at a rapid pace. click for more

Keys to Successful Groupware Deployment in Europe


Organizations across Europe are rapidly deploying groupware and messaging solutions to support their business needs.


IDC forecasts the total installed groupware user base in Europe will expand at a 1997-2003 compound annual growth rate of 21%. Yet, in many cases, companies find their deployment does not meet their expectations – or the deployment costs more time and money than they had planned. click for more


IDC’s European Collaborative Technologies research program is offering a complimentary excerpt from its new report, The Best of European Groupware Deployments: User Case Profiles


Microsoft Nudged Slightly Ahead of Lotus and Novell in a Strong 1Q 1999 U.S. Groupware Market


The 1999 U.S. market for integrated collaborative environment software, commonly referred to as groupware, saw its three leading vendors in a close heat (within 1 million new users of one another) during the first calendar quarter of 1999. According to International Data Corporation (IDC) estimates, Microsoft Exchange took an early lead with 1.9 million new users, followed very closely by Lotus Domino/Notes with 1.4 million new users and Novell GroupWise with 1 million new users in the United States. click for more


IDC Predicts Worldwide Internet Services Revenues Will Surge Past $78 Billion in 2003


«In addition to becoming more prominent, Internet projects are becoming more sophisticated and complex, demanding different skills of programmers, designers, and business strategists. Because companies are having extreme difficulties locating and hiring employees with these skills, they are turning to outside service providers to fulfill their needs,» said Meredith McCarty, senior analyst with IDC’s Internet Services research program.


E*TRADE’s Rapid Growth Outpaces Its Technology


E*TRADE’s blazing growth rate is both a blessing and a curse. The company is adding customers and rolling out new services at an unprecedented rate, yet its technology appears ill-prepared to handle the mass increase in customers. E*TRADE is not alone. Its problems reflect the difficulties many e-commerce sites face.


To Win the Battle for Online Profits, Companies Should Arm Themselves with Customer Relationship Management Tools


Because the cost of reaching new online customers can be staggering, many e-commerce merchants are looking for ways to turn existing relationships with consumers into long-term profits. Companies that conduct business online must realize that the sales acquisition process is not distinct from the relationship management process. The two are completely integrated in driving the shopping, selection, and buying process.


Revenues in the Worldwide Internet Commerce Application Market Will Skyrocket 280% in 1999


Revenues in the worldwide Internet commerce application market are increasing at a blazing pace. In 1998, they soared 154% to $444 million. In 1999, they will jump another 280% and near $1.7 billion. This data comes from a new report from International Data Corporation (IDC), Internet Commerce Software Applications Market Review and Forecast, 1998-2003.


«A big factor behind the steep growth in the worldwide Internet commerce application market is the increased availability of these products over the past year,» said Albert Pang, research manager with IDC’s eCommerce Software research program. «At the inception of e-commerce, sites had to rely on their own development teams just to build a simple shopping cart or add fraud prevention and export control features to their transaction engines. Now they can buy products to add these functions.»



Electronic Data Interchange Meets Its Match in Web-Enabled Procurement Systems


Electronic data interchange (EDI) has met its match. A new bulletin from International Data Corporation (IDC) praises the advantages of Web-enabled procurement systems and says they will be a powerful competitor to EDI. «Compared with EDI, Web-enabled procurement systems are cheaper, easier to use, scalable, and more flexible,» said Joan-Carol Brigham, research manager of IDC’s Internet and eCommerce Strategies program.


Driven by Electronic Commerce and Rising Internal Threats, the Internet Security Market Is Exploding


«The increased use of the Internet is clearly seen as both heaven and hell – heaven because electronic commerce can boost revenues and lower costs, hell because it opens up networks and servers to external and, more significantly, internal attacks,» said Chris Christiansen, program director with IDC’s Internet Security service. «IT executives are dealing with these challenges and opportunities by radically increasing spending on firewalls, encryption, antivirus, intrusion detection, single sign-on, public key infrastructure/certificate authority, and other security management software.» click for more



VOIP Has Potential to Radically Change the Telecommunications Industry


Voice-over-IP (VOIP) represents a pivotal technology but in order for VOIP technology to succeed, it will need to overcome a number of obstacles. «We define a pivotal technology as one that is large enough in scope and promise to have the capacity to redefine the industry,» said Tom Valovic, a research manager with IDC’s IP Telephony program. «The really interesting thing about VOIP is its potential to redefine not only the data communications industry but telecommunications as well.»

E-Commerce Stimulates a Corporate Internet Spending Frenzy


Corporate Internet spending is frantichttp://www.idc.com/Data/default.htm

From $85 billion in the United States alone in 1999, it will jump to surpass $203 billion by 2002, and the spending frenzy will continue well into the new millennium, according to a new report by International Data Corporation (IDC).


The spending bonanza isn’t limited to certain industries either. Financial services will spend $16.6 billion in 1999. Manufacturing will spend $24 billion. Retail will invest $6.2 billion, and online media and communications will dole out $10.7 billion.

IDC Identifies Winning Attributes for Internet Services Firms


Spending on Internet and eCommerce site development is anticipated to grow from $11.8 billion in 1999 to $43.6 billion worldwide by the year 2002.  http://www.idc.com/Data/default.htm

Despite the growing opportunity, IDC says that service firms who seek to maximize this market opportunity need to align their service offerings and capabilities with the changing requirements of organizations.


«eCommerce has thrown organizations into a whirlwind of business change,» said Meredith McCarty, senior analyst, IDC’s Internet Services research program. «Internet service firms that can provide technological, strategic, and creative acumen will be able to evolve their roles from merely ‘vendor’ to ‘trusted partner.'»



Net Taxes To Reduce Online Purchases

Sep 17 1999: A new survey by BizRate.com finds that the amount of goods shoppers are willing to

purchase online will diminish if taxes are introduced.


US Companies Lack Coherent Net Strategy

Sep 15 1999: 65 percent of US companies do not have a coherent ecommerce strategy, according to

a survey by the Cutter Consortium.


Online Purchasing Up 60 Percent in Australia


Sep 07 1999: In Australia, an estimated 650,000 Internet users made 3 million online purchases

between May 1998 and May 1999, according to a report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.


Call for Cross Border Shopping Rules


Sep 06 1999: Consumers International, a federation of consumers from 239 countries worldwide, has

called on the OECD to introduce international guidelines for ecommerce for the protection of

consumers online.


Companies Show Poor Web Business Strategy


Sep 03 1999: E-businesses are too heavily focused on consumer ecommerce applications in their

Internet strategy, rather than on the overall restructuring of their business models or thinking,

according to a report by META Group.


Holiday Season Users Likely to Shop not Buy



Sep 02 1999: While 94 percent of online consumers use the Internet to shop, just 10 percent say they

prefer to buy things online, according to a survey by Net Effect Systems.


Over 2 Billion Orders Placed Online Annually


Aug 30 1999: Over 2 billion orders will be placed over the Internet this year, however merchants are

not well positioned to meet the increasing volume of business, according to Forrester Research.


31 Percent of US Users Buy Regularly Online


Aug 12 1999: 31 percent of Internet users in the US are now purchasing regularly online, according to a

report by CDB Research and Consulting Inc



121 Million Online in Western Europe by 2004


Aug 05 1999: In Western Europe, an estimated 121 million adults will have Internet access by 2004,

spending over USD18 billion on online purchases, according to Fletcher Research.


Direct Marketers to Lead Web Marketing


Aug 04 1999: Revenue generated by the direct marketing industry online is projected to grow by

150 percent by 2000, according to ActivMedia.


European Ecommerce Will Remain Centralised


Jul 23 1999: By 2004, five European countries will generate 75 percent of the region’s online

consumers, according to Fletcher Research.

E-marketer – Analysis of the eCommerce Consumer Market

E-marketer 25/9-99 http://www.emarketer.com/

The Most Comprehensive, Objective Analysis of the eCommerce Consumer Market is finally available.



EMarketer releases the eRetail Report, Volume II. http://www.emarketer.com/

  • How do you turn shoppers into buyers?
  • What are the barriers to shopping online?
  • Who are eConsumers?
  • How big will this market be?
  • What is the future for online books, auctions and apparel sales?



If you are interested in, or need to be aware of:

  • Market Size & Growth
  • eCommerce
  • Online Shopping
  • Demographics
  • Usage Patterns



In the eEurope Report you will find information regarding:

  • What is driving growth in European internet and e-commerce development?
  • What is the projected growth rate for online advertising in Europe?
  • How will the Euro affect e-commerce in Europe? …and much more.


With the eGlobal Report you get instant access to facts and figures on North America, Europe, Asia and the Pacific Rim, South America, the Middle East and Africa — looking at every aspect of the net:


  • Online population sizes
  • Regional growth trends
  • eCommerce
  • Country-by-country reviews
  • Growth barriers and drivers
  • Advertising online
  • Web user demographics
  • Net usage patterns
  • Languages online 


Electronic Commerce


Two years ago the total value of transactions taking place over the world wide web was measured in tens of millions of dollars. By the year 2000 some analysts expect that Internet-based business-to-business transactions alone will reach nearly $200 billion. (And that doesn’t include EDI, shared inventory replenishment systems, self-serve kiosks, private networks, and other varieties of electronic commerce.) The numbers are attention-getting. Still, the path forward for many companies is far from clear.


This research initiative explores a number of questions in close cooperation with a vanguard of firms: Which connecting technologies make best sense now and will lay the groundwork for future investments? Will investing in electronic commerce cannibalize current business opportunities or enhance them? What is the best way for a given firm to connect with customers (both to deliver more value to customers and to enhance the firm’s profitability)? What models have proven effective for different kinds of firms in exploiting the new marketspace? REAL NUMBERS BEHIND  THE ONLINE BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS INDUSTRY


ActivMEDIA’s 6th annual online survey of Web E-commerce.



E-Commerce Practices for Direct Marketers, Publishers & Business Suppliers



Some key findings from this report:

  • E-Commerce Among Direct Marketers Projected to Grow 150% by 2000
  • Overall, direct marketers estimate that their Internet presence has contributed 15 percent net new business since they have been transacting business online.
  • Paid banner advertising is considered the most effective means of generating ad revenue for publishers.


The  Evolving  Online Consumer  Competing in a Connected World



Whether your core business is online or off, your customers’ expectations, needs and preferences are changing because of evolving connected technologies at home and work. People who have become accustomed to the advantages of instant telecommunications and overcome barriers

to use are behaving differently: in the way they shop, in the way they spend their leisure, in the purchases and transactions they make, and in

the way they seek information. Only marketers who understand where their customers are headed — and where they’re not — will be able to

keep up, with products, services, support and delivery mechanisms that satisfy and draw repeat business.




is a set of weather maps for online business executives who want to:

  • target most profitable market demographics
  • refine products and presentation to consumers’ changing online preferences
  • more successfully time offline-to-online transitions
  • anticipate changing market and shopping preferences
  • capitalize on new media preferences and information-seeking behaviors

One-to-One Web Marketing E-News February 1999


One-to-one marketing on the web and integrating databases with web sites are key items on online retailers’ wish lists. A recent survey from KPMG’s Electronic Commerce practice of 225 vice presidents from the top 2,000 U.S. consumer and financial services companies showed that these companies selected one-to-one marketing as a key feature to be added to their online retail sites. Other features to be implemented include electronic payment processing, electronic order processing, and integration with back-end systems. Here are a few other interesting findings from the online retail (OLR) study:


Companies who are in both the business-to-business and business-to-consumer online retailingare more likely to be profitable than companies serving the business-to-consumer market (49%versus 31%)  32% of respondents have stand-alone OLR systems, 24% integrate it with their database and 18% integrate it with their intranet or extranet link.



5.1.9  Trends Technology PricewaterhouseCoopers E-Business Technology Forecast


Advances in technology that once took years now occur in months or even weeks. New virtual businesses sprout up every day, and previously unlikely competitors now vie for market share in spaces never before possible.


E-business is a driving force of this phenomenon, and technology provides the backbone and infrastructure behind it. At PricewaterhouseCoopers, we have the technology knowledge and experience to help our clients strengthen and grow their businesses to gain the e-business edge in this new information economy.


PricewaterhouseCoopers has produced an E-Business Technology Forecast focusing on the uses of information technology that cross enterprise boundaries and encompass a transaction or part of a transactional relationship (including customer service, supply chain integration, or payment processing).



The PwC E-Business Technology Forecast takes an in depth look at four topics about which businesses need to be knowledgeable before venturing into or expanding their e-business capabilities:


  1. E-Business Platforms and Applications
    Until recently, many Internet sites were either partially or almost entirely custom-built, costing significant amounts of money and pricing some businesses out of the online marketplace. Now, software applications and tools vendors have made significant strides in enabling e-businesses to choose from a selection of best-of-breed applications coupled with custom development for a strong Web presence.
Integration with Enterprise Systems

The ultimate goal of e-business is to seamlessly connect an organization’s «front office» (customer facing) and «back office» (business processes) operations to serve its global customers. In the mid-1990s, companies sought to  re-engineer their back offices — including manufacturing, finance and distribution. Now, companies are seeking to link their back and front offices (the latter considered «the last frontier» because of the potential for development and revenue generation) for true integration.


  1. Payment Technologies Technology vendors are attempting to provide merchants and buyers with secure, reliable and unobtrusive transaction methods. Whether a payment is made electronically or by way of cash or even barter, the same key requirements are involved; authorization, authentication, nonrepudiation, data integrity and privacy.


  1. E-Business Infrastructure
    From an investment viewpoint, the reality oftransitioning to an e-business environment is that development and deployment never stop. Firms can expect to continually reinvent and reinvest in their Web sites to leverage changes in e-business technology, practice models and the competitive landscape. Managing product expectations (Today, companies are often using new and sometimes immature products to get a leg up on the competition.), a rapidly changing vendor community, and the migration to the next generation of Web technologies will test the creativity and resolve of the best management teams. Decision-makers must plan for multiple and more rapid life cycles for their e-business practice models and technology compared to previous generations of enterprise applications. Pricewarterhouse & Colybrand – Technology Overview


Across the globe, technology industries continue to revolutionize the business landscape and have a dramatic impact on the world. In the midst of this revolution, companies face a myriad of challenges that require innovative and proactive solutions that help maintain short-term success and sustain a long-term competitive advantage.


  1. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
    Semiconductor companies, on both the product and equipment sides of the business, operate in an environment of intense and rapid change. They are constantly confronted by issues of globalization, tightening product cycles, leapfrogging technical innovation, exponential increase in capitalization needs, and vigorous competition in quality, time to market and price.


  1. Computers & Peripherals
    The only constants in the Computers and Peripherals industry today are the speed of change and the certainty of another generation. Every day, every company confronts the growth in size and density of chips, the decline in price points, the spiral of capital expenditure, the globalization of production and the modularization of products. At the same time, current operations must be managed and optimized and future strategies must be developed and modified.


  1. Networking & Communications
    At every level, Networking and Communications companies are confronted by change, some of it driven by external factors, some by the internal dynamics of the industry. The exponential growth of bandwidth demand, deregulation, the stream of new communications technologies, the metamorphosis of existing companies, and the explosive entry of new ones, all create daily changes in the product and competitive environments. As the assumptions change and the infrastructure is re-invented, business operations must continue and new strategies must be developed and implemented.


  1. Internet
    The Internet brings together more technological threads than any other industrial sector. Companies in this arena deal with previously unheard-of rates of change, levels of uncertainty and competition, financial risks and opportunities and media interest. Web Years are no joke, and the generation gap is a severe obstacle that confronts companies with heavy financial commitments in the face of very rapid obsolescence. Meanwhile, as the scorekeeper, the investment community sanctions the winners and losers with exceptional rewards.


  1. Life Sciences
    Technological progress is the main driver of the Life Sciences industry. Compliance and competition are facts of life that challenge the ability of all innovative companies to focus and succeed. The speed of growth and the rapidity of change do not make it easier to extract and commercialize the results of leading edge research.


  1. Software
    The software industry is driven by the ability to deliver better solutions faster and cheaper with every product cycle. Those cycles are only partly under the control of the participants, who have to deal with radical technological change on a daily basis. The shift to the desktop, the impact of client/server, the emergence of UNIX and NT, relational DBMSs, EDI, the World Wide Web, intranets and Workflow have changed fundamental business assumptions several times this decade. Each change demands attention before the consequences of the predecessors are fully absorbed.


  1. Venture Capital
    The venture capital industry is dependent on three key variables: capital commitments from limited partners, a receptive market for exit out of deals (either a strong market for IPOs or M&A deals), and finally reasonable valuations on investments to ensure high returns to generals and limited partners. Of the three variables, valuation of deals is the most significant factor in a healthy venture market. If venture firms are paying excessive valuations then eventually returns will suffer, leading to a reduced level of new funds raised and leading to less exit opportunities. Pricewaterhouse & Colybrand – Telecommunications Overview


The Telecommunications industry is going through profound changes. Technological advancement and regulatory restructuring are quickly transforming the industry throughout the world. Rapid developments in digital technology are blurring the distinction between the telecommunications, computing and media sectors. The Telecom Act of 1996 erased many of the long-standing entry barriers in this industry. The result? New markets, new players, new challenges, and, for those positioned to turn change to competitive advantage, new opportunities.


Some farsighted telecommunications operators have invested in significant re-engineering efforts. They are poised to take advantage of these new opportunities. But for the most part, telecommunications operators are not well prepared for the increasing challenges they are facing. Decades without

competition have created and ingrained business processes and business cultures that are inward focused, costly and not conducive to competitiveness. Networking & Telecommunications Research



International Data Corporation (IDC) has identified several major trends that will impact software vendors’ channel plans over the next year and longer. These trends include the Internet, partner portfolios, value-added distribution, Microsoft’s online software sales strategy, Linux, and «marketing wedges.» http://www.idc.com/Data/default.htm


The Internet, Microsoft’s Online Sales Strategy, and Linux Will Shake up the Channel Union of Desktop Voice and Data Communications Spawning New Billion-Dollar Market, IDC Report Shows
The convergence of voice and data communications at the desktop has given birth to a new and revolutionary technology segment, identified by IDC as the Converged Branch eXchange (CBX). The CBX is that next-generation PBX platform that not only leverages open and cost-effective hardware, software, and communications sub-systems, but also provides for robust end-user voice/data applications. click for more


IP Telephony Market Will Soar to 2.7 Billion Minutes of Use and $480 Million in Revenues by Yearend 1999
The worldwide Internet protocol (IP) telephony will explode from 310 million minutes of use in 1998 to 2.7 billion by yearend 1999. By 2004, IP telephony minutes will reach 135 billion. Revenues for this service will skyrocket from $480 million in 1999 to $19 billion by 2004. This data comes from IDC’s new report IP Telephony Services: Market Review and Forecast, 1998-2004. More Wireless and Mobile Communications Research


Working Outside the Office Spurs Demand for Remote and Mobile IT Products, IDC Says
The U.S. remote and mobile population represents a potential gold mine for IT vendors. According to market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC), this segment will jump from 35.7 million remote and mobile users in 1999 to 47.1 million by 2003.


Work-at-Home and Online Households Will Fuel Emerging Markets for Communications Products and Services, IDC Says
Work-at-home and online households spend more on local and long distance services than other U.S. households and will fuel the growth of emerging broadband services and home networking solutions, as well as enhanced calling features like Internet call waiting in the coming year.


IDC’s 1999 Survey of Wireless Users, Former Users, and Nonusers Indicates PCS Penetration Shows Strongest Growth
Penetration of personal communications services (PCS) phones is growing faster than penetration of either cellular phones or pagers.


Consumers Have an Increasingly Loud Voice in the Cellular/PCS Industry
Fewer subscribers are using their cellular/personal communications services (PCS) telephones for business use and more are using them for convenience purposes. This is one of many key findings from IDC’s fifth annual Personal Wireless Communications User Survey.

Competition for Small Business Local Telecom Spending Heats Up
Around the country, competition is intensifying for the dollars that small businesses spend on telecommunications. In total, small businesses will spend $43.5 billion on telecom services in 1999, with three-quarters of this sum spent on local services.


U.S. Telcos and ISPs Gear Up to Unveil Internet Call Waiting Services
Help is on the way for many online households that tie up their only phone line surfing the Web. A new type of service called Internet Call Waiting is emerging in the residential market. This new service enables online households with a single analog telephone line to monitor and manage incoming phone calls from a PC while they are simultaneously using the same line for Internet access. The monthly fee for this new service is less expensive than the monthly fee of a second residential telephone line. click for more Changes/trends technology Builder.com


Freric Paul


No. 1: The year 2000 comeshttp://www.builder.com/Business/Paul/010499/ss09.html No. 2: XML struts its stuff, sort of than that.



No. 3: Microsoft loses case, gets slap on wrist



No. 4: Open source soars



No. 5: Broadband gets broader



No. 6: Web applications replace content



No. 7: Net stocks become an even wilder ride



No. 8: Macromedia challenges Microsoft in Web tools market



No. 9: E-commerce gets even bigger



No. 10: Browsers get (slightly) more compatible



Consumer Insights for the Technology Industry

 Tech*Watch Keeps You On-Trend


ACNielsen Tech*Watch is a subscription-based service providing continuous measurement of consumer purchasing patterns. This unique information source is not just a one-time snapshot, but rather an on-going monitor of who’s buying what, where and why. ACNielsen Tech*Watch is based on the ACNielsen HomescanTM consumer panel, the multi-outlet panel that covers all consumer packaged goods purchasing, including non-UPC coded random weight perishable products. Other technology trends





The Ernst & Young Center for Business Innovation


Research on customer connection identifies new ways to grow by forging economic, knowledge, and technological links to customers. The rapidly evolving world of electronic commerce is an example deserving of special attention. Finally, most broadly, our search for a new theory of the firm anticipates

an economy so connected that it begins to behave as a complex adaptive system-and looks

to complexity science to provide clues to the future.


See http://www.frost.com/

Despite mobile phone penetration being higher in Europe than online penetration, Jupiter believes that

the PC will remain the dominant interactive platform. http://www.jup.com/


Regulations Are Shaping Telecom Markets

Dataquest http://gartner12.gartnerweb.com/dq/static/dq.html

Responsible regulations worldwide are stimulating competition and innovations in the telecom markets.


Another Suite Bites the Dust


Lotus Development announced the «strategic redeployment» of development and marketing resources from eSuite to its collaborative and knowledge management forays.  by: James Smith

The Trouble with Digital (Television, That Is)


Digital television continues to be a subject for much discussion and debate. The short history of digital television has seen confrontations between the computer industry and the consumer electronics industry. Additionally, the role of the cable …  by: Van Baker


The latest in e-commerce and Internet consumer research enhances the Dataquest service portfolio with the acquisition of INTECO, Corp.

http://gartner12.gartnerweb.com/dq/static/offer/inteco_products.html .

Services focus on Internet technology and e-commerce used by consumers. Through interviews with hundreds of thousands of U.S. and European households, primary demand-side research helps both technology vendors and end user marketers track consumers’ uses of interactive products. Results provide reliable analysis and forecasts consumers’ propensity to adopt new technologies – unparalleled

information to support your strategic business decisions. Forecasts are provided for consumer habits and attitudes toward a variety of interactive technologies including PCs, the Internet, online services, interactive TV, and more.


The Interactive Home Program – United States



Media & Entertainment – provides strategic analysis of changes in consumer technology usage and the impact on the TV, print and content industries.


Technology & Infrastructure – strategic analysis of changes in consumer usage of technology and communications and the impact on technology vendors as well as companies which use new media to communicate, sell or distribute to their customers …


Financial Services – strategic analysis of changes in consumer technology usage and the impact on the financial services industries, including retail banking, brokerage, insurance and loans …


Telecom & Online Services – strategic analysis of changes in consumer technology usage and the impact on the telecommunications, online and e-commerce industries.


European Interactive Programs


The Interactive Home: Technology & Infrastructure Sector for France, Germany, and the U.K. – complete coverage tracks consumer activity for Internet & online services, interactive TV, and a comprehensive view of technology platforms in the home.


Interactive Marketing & Distribution in the Automotive Sector for France, Germany, and the U.K. – enables you to measure your potential market reach and forecast business based on current and future adoption of new media technologies for automobile promotion as well as secondary services such as



Interactive Marketing & Distribution in the Travel Sector for France, Germany, and the U.K. – examines the use of new media to promote and sell travel tickets, package holidays and secondary services and provides reliable market data to drive corporate strategies.


Interactive Marketing & Distribution in the Financial Services Sector U.K. – examines the opportunity to market, sell and distribute to consumers as well as helping technology vendors monitor developments in business-to-consumer e-commerce and capitalize on the financial sector.


European Tracking Programs for Vendors


Home PC Tracking Service for France, Germany, and the U.K. – detailed and continuous analysis of current consumer PC buying behavior designed specifically for PC hardware & software vendors, peripheral manufacturers and associated channel owners.


Small & Medium Enterprise PC Tracking for France, Germany, and the U.K. – monitors buying trends for servers, desktops, and portable PCs in enterprises of up to 100 employees in size and provides the basis for market sizing and business planning.



5.1.10  Drivers for Change – Consumers Growing Up digital



  • Louder Echo
  • Generation Lap
  • Interactive Culture
  • N-Gen Thinking
  • N-Gen Learning
  • N-Gen at Play
  • N-Gen as Consumers !!
  • Digital Divide
  • N-Gen at Work
  • N-Gen’s Families
  • Future Leaders The Culture of Interaction


A new youth culture, one that involves more than just the pop culture of music, MTV and the movies, is emerging out of N-Gen’s use of interactive media. It also involves the experience of being part of the largest generation in the world. We should pay attention to this culture which will very soon create the workplace and the society of tomorrow. The Ten Themes of N-Gen Culture


  1. Strong Independence The typical N-Gener has a strong sense of independence & autonomy.

N-Gen’s unprecedented access to information also gives them the power to acquire the knowledge

necessary to confront information they feel may not be correct.


  1. Emotional and Intellectual Openness When N-Geners go online they expose themselves. They

will maintain online journals and post their innermost thoughts on a Web page or in a chat room.

A strong online example of N-Geners’ openness is The Diary Project where young people around

the world contribute their thoughts, feelings, experiences and aspirations.


  1. Inclusion N-Geners are moving toward greater social inclusion with technology, not exclusion.

Their creative processes show a move toward global orientation in all of their activities. Check out

a virtual community of about 30,000 N-Geners at Freezone.


  1. Free Expression and Strong Views Being exposed to a lot of information on the Internet is to

their benefit, insists N-Gen, and is a key element of the Internet’s appeal and usefulness. This issue

is discussed in The Generation Lap.


  1. Innovation N-Geners live and breathe innovation, constantly looking for ways to do things better.

These expectations of constant change and the ability to build or construct experiences have

implications in our discussion of N-Gen Thinking and the education of N-Gen in N-Gen Learning.


  1. Preoccupation with Maturity The changing nature of childhood makes itself most obvious when

N-Geners are contrasted with the baby boomers who, as a generation, have spent their lives

obsessed with being youthful. N-Geners insist that they are more mature than adults expect.


  1. Investigations When it comes to technology, N-Gen’s initial focus is not how it works but how to

work it. It is important for children to understand the assumptions inherent in software and to feel

empowered to change those assumptions.


When the Internet first became popular, one of the joys of surfing was never knowing what site

you could end up at next. Search engines like Yahooligans have contributed to ending that level

of mystery and uncertainty.


  1. Immediacy Interactivity and the speed of the Net have greatly increased the process of

communicating. What used to take days or weeks, now takes seconds.


  1. Sensitivity to Corporate Interest N-Geners feel that much of the broadcasting material they see

on television is there to satisfy corporate agendas. However, on the Internet there has been such a

flurry of creation involving so many people working in home-grown cottage industries, that there

is even more intense sensitivity to corporate interest.


  1. Authentication and Trust Because of the anonymity, accessibility, diversity, and ubiquity of the

Net, children must continually authenticate what they see or hear. Many sites provide inaccurate,

invalid and even deceptive information. Pranksters spread false rumours. Who can the child trust?

What sources of information are valid? Authentication of everything is required to establish trust.

The proliferation of Internet hoaxes spread via e-mail has often been used to emphasize the

inherent weakness of the Net. Don’t Spread That Hoax! is one site that gives credence to that question.
 N-Gen as Consumers  – Growing Up digital



The term N-Gen was first used to describe this wave of youth in an article by Don Tapscott in

Advertising Age. At that time there was a lot of debate about whether or not the Internet was an effective place to advertise. Don’s conclusions were affirmative, but cautionary. On the Net, one has to advertise differently. N-Geners using new media have a new set of expectations. Among the themes of these expectations are:


1. N-Geners Want Options

Availability of choice is a deeply held value in N-Gen culture. Having grown up in a free and interactive world, nothing is more foreign to them than limits and monopolies.


2. N-Gen Customization

N-Geners are entering a world of highly customized products and services which will be shaped by them, not just as a market, but as individuals. This is causing changes in learning and the relationship between working, learning, and daily life as a consumer. Brand names may be able to overcome this obstacle as they have done so many times, however the future may lead to a change in the way products are marketed, and already in the way products are bought.


3. They want to Change Their Minds

Video games and the Net are an environment where mistakes can immediately be corrected and situations can be re-created. N-Geners, however, also expect to be able to change their minds, not just to correct their mistakes. They want to be able to «change their minds a thousand times», as country singer Shania Twain says. Marketers should pay attention to this fact.


4. Try Before They Buy

N-Geners are not viewers or listeners or readers. They are users. They reject the notion of expertise as they shift through information at the speed of light by themselves, for themselves. It is difficult to convince them that they must have anything. Other industries can learn what the software and video game industries have already adopted – make your product free to use for a limited time. If it’s use becomes integrated into the N-Gen routine, making activities faster, brighter, and easier, then the product becomes indispensable and the companies can begin to



5. The Ethics of Advertising to N-Gen

Given the growing influence of the N-Gen in adult purchasing, we can expect that advertisers will  aunch massive campaigns to deliver their messages to N-Geners – on packaging, billboards, print media, television, and increasingly, the Net. But there are ethical problems that arise when advertisers target children, and those questions are becoming harder to answer.


With the Internet, advertisers have new ways to introduce messages into content. A maker of children’s cereals was recently criticized for its site on which children could play with its promotional cartoon characters. This seems harmless enough. A bigger problem, however, arises when such sites use cartoon characters to promote products that can be harmful to children, such as cigarettes, or alcohol.


The problem is that if a site is designed to be accessed freely, it cannot restrict its users to a specific age group. This problem of demographic verification has plagued Web site content providers since the advent of World Wide Web. The only way for a site to find out what their user profile is, is to ask their users.


Should this kind of data be collected from children? The Centre for Media Education says no.

They are seeking to end the practice of collecting any personal data about children unless they can verify that they have received parental permission to do so. In contrast, the advertising industry itself, Council of Better Business Bureaus, and the National Advertising Review Council, have proposed guidelines that suggest advertisers simply make reasonable efforts to convince children to ask their parents for permission before they divulge personal information.



5.1.11 Demographics Different Demographics

The Language of the Web  This article can be found online at:


By 2002, Internet users will be predominately non-English speaking, according to research by

Computer Economics, and by 2005, 60 percent of Internet users will speak a language other than



300 Million Online by 2005  This article can be found online at:


The global Internet population will reach 250 million in 2002, and 300 million by 2005, according to a report by Datamonitor.

Datamonitor also predicts a rise the volume of Internet traffic attributable to video- and audio-intensive applications. While the company forecasts use of the World Wide Web to be the fastest-growing Internet application in the short term, audio and video will rise significantly.


At present, video/audio screening account for 2 percent of Internet traffic according to Datamonitor. By 2003, the company predicts this number will rise to 6 percent. High-bandwidth networks will fuel growth in the audio/video sector, as well as fax and voice servers in the future, according to Datamonitor.



Worldwide Internet Users to Pass 500 Million Next Century This article can be found online at:



A pair of research reports by International Data Corp. (IDC) and the Computer Industry Almanac (CIA) differ on whether Europe or North America will be the leading market for Internet users when 2005 rolls around, but they do agree on one thing: Earth will be home to more than 500 million Internet users next century.


According to IDC, the online population of Europe will overtake that of the US for the first time in 2003. By 2003, Europe will have 170 million Internet users, up from a current estimate of 44 million.


The World’s Online Populations


The number of Internet users around the world is constantly growing. The Computer Industry

Almanac has reported that by the year 2000, 327 million people around the world will have Internet

access. The top 15 countries will account for nearly 82% of the these worldwide Internet users

(including business, educational, and home Internet users). By the year 2000 there will be 25

countries where over 10% of the population will be Internet users.


Females Lead Online Growth Spurt


The number of Internet users in North America has now reached 92 million, according to a study released by CommerceNet and Nielsen Media Research. The study also revealed that, while the number of Internet users age 16 and older in the US and Canada increased 16 percent in the last nine months, the number of online consumers jumped 40 percent to 28 million during the same time period.


Online Radio Listeners are Active Web Consumers This article can be found online at:


Online radio listeners are far more interactive while surfing the Internet than Web users who have not tuned into an online audio streamer, according to a study by Arbitron NewMedia and Edison Media Research



Other findings of the Nielsen/CommerceNet study includehttp://www.commercenet.com

  • 46 percent of the 92 million Internet users in North America are women, compared to 43 percent two years ago
  • 41 percent of today’s 55 million Internet shoppers are women, compared to 36 percent over the last two years
  • Of the 28 million online purchasers, 9 million made them once a month, 1 million purchased once a week
  • 13 percent of online buyers made their first Internet purchase in the preceding month


«The Web Will Accelerate The Nationalization Of Local


Commerce,» Forrester Research, Inc., 7/26/99. Forrester Research projects that by 2003 online sales by local small business merchants in the US market will drop from 9% today to 6%. They see factors as inability to afford the $1 million need to build a e-commerce presence. «Without a recognizable brand, local merchants have difficulty driving site traffic through advertising and portal deals. The results are sites that lack the scale to create an optimal merchandising environment that can fully utilize more advanced features like personalization and one-stop shopping.»


«Young Consumers Are Internalizing Net Rules,» http://www.forrester.com/ER/Press/Release/0,1769,158,FF.html

Forrester Research, Inc., 8/10/99. A Forrester study of consumers in the 16-22 age bracket found that they are internalizing rules that will guide future Net purchases: (1) information is everywhere, (2)

personal information has value, (3) choice is a human right, (4) there is such a thing as a free lunch, and (5) Building trust doesn’t require face-to-face interaction. Brief implications for marketers.


Stacy Lawrence, «Multimedia Tasking,» Iconocast, 8/19/99.

Study determined that 57% of US Internet users can access their TVs and PCs simultaneously. Of these 86% actually go online while watching TV, and 91% report visiting a URL they saw on TV, and

62% clicked to it while watching TV.


Sean Carton, «Living The Web Lifestyle,» ClickZ, 8/18/99.

‘Tomorrow’s consumers will demand a whole new way of marketing,’ as indicated by the behaviors and attitudes of online shoppers in the 16-22 age group. How to interpret the trend, and adapt your web business for future opportunities.


«Study Finds That Brands Don’t Matter To Young
Consumers On-line,» Forrester Research, 6/24/99. A study of 8,600 online consumers aged 16 to 22 were asked what they think of 50 leading brands. Offline brands received mixed reviews, but respondents showed no interest in the brands online.

Robert Conlin, «Internet Fast Becoming a Global Draw,»

E-Commerce Times, 6/10/99. StatMarket reports that foreign domain Internet access has grown rapidly, and now stands at nearly 44% of all Web traffic. Top web-using nations other than US are: Japan 23%, Germany 15%, UK 6 %, Canada 5%, Australia and Italy at 4%.


«Information Haves and Haves Not,» Emarketer, 7/12/99.

Study based on data collect by Census Bureau. It extensively analyzes telephone, computer and Internet access according to race, income, education, and location. A few of the many points: 40% of

households own computers; 25% have Internet access.


«100 Million Users in Europe in 2003,» Emarketer, 7/12/99.

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter’s The European Internet Report shows European Internet population will jump from 34 million in 1998 to 100.3 million in 2003, due to a significant projected rise in population.


«Kids and Teens to Spend More Online,» CyberAtlas,
6/7/99. Summary of projections researched by Jupiter Communications for teens (age 13-18) and kids (age 5-12), showing online purchasing trends from 1998 to 2002. Total volume is small ($1.2 billion teen spending in 2002), but growing rapidly.
Mary Hillebrand, «Studies Pinpoint Future Internet Shoppers,

Lagging Areas,» E-Commerce Times, 7/9/99. Summary of three recent demographic studies (US Commerce Dept., Greenfield Online, eMarketer) showing an increasing gap between Internet

‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ in the US; and increase in college student access and buying; and rapidgrowth of the international market.


Bob Tedeschi, «Online Retailers Applaud Increase in Women

Shoppers,» New York Times, 7/12/99. The number of women shopping online has risen dramatically in the last year. Retail categories such as apparel, health and beauty and toys are the immediate beneficiaries. A look at the impact of this on sites such as Women.com and iQVC.


«Spring 1999 Internet Demographic Survey,»

CommerceNet/Nielsen Media Research, 6/17/99. The number of Internet users in North America has now reached 92 million – 55 million (60%) of whom shop online. Women and men purchase the

same types of products online, with books and CDs/videos on top. Women prefer clothing and books, while menshop more for automobiles/automotive parts and computers.


Sean Carton, «The Consumer Backlash,» ClickZ, 6/2/99. Author

summarizes recent surveys and demographics that suggest web surfers are reacting against objectionable practices such as spam, online fraud and privacy violations by resisting commerce. Suggests best practices to counter the trend.

 «64.2 Million U.S. Adults Online Monthly,» eMarketer, 5/17/99.

Summary of the most recent study of Internet usage in the U.S., by Mediamark Research. Also a comparison chart of data from more than 20 current sources. The vast majority of users access major

online services (AOL, MSN, CompuServe, Prodigy).
John Gaffney, «College Students Are Ready to Buy Online,»

ChannelSeven, 5/3/99. Sites Greenfield survey found that half of students 18 to 24 surveyed pay all their own credit card bills, and that 61% make online purchases. 65% go online more than once a day.


«5 Million Web Sites on the WWW,» Netcraft, 5/1/99.
http://www.netcraft.co.uk/survey/ The

Netcraft Web Server Survey querying servers received responses from 5,414,325 website servers, up from 1 million two years ago. Apache and Microsoft IIS servers dominate the market.


«IntelliQuest Study Shows 83 Million U.S. Internet Users and 56 Million Online Shoppers”

IntelliQuest, 4/15/99. More than 83

million adults, or 40% of the U.S. population age 16 or older are accessing the Internet, up from 66 million online during the same quarter in 1998, with another 44 million planning to go online in the future. Purchase have been made by 56million.


“Findings on Personalization, Privacy, Marketing, and Customer Service on the Web,»
Cognitiative, Inc., 4/12/99. Focus group research of Web customers found that 32% dislike sales-oriented

e-mail so much they avoid doing business with the sender. 90% prefer broad choice over vendor-controlled personalization. Few vendors do a good enough job with customer service,though 59%

of business customers consider receiving online customer service their most important Web activity, and prefer it to telephone support.


Humphrey Taylor, «On-Line Population Spends an Average of Six Hours on the Internet or Web per Week,»
The Harris Poll, 3/24/99. In a Feb 99 phone survey of 2015 adults, the average

Internet user spent 6 hours/week on the Web (exclusive of e-mail). The heaviest users spent 9 hours/week and were aged 30 to 39. Time on the Net didn’t vary much by education level or race.


Daniel Roth, «My, What Big Internet Numbers You Have!,»

Fortune, 3/15/99. A look at the main sources of all the e-commerce and web marketing research figures you see all the time: Forrester Research, Jupiter Communications, Zona Research. Does their quest for revenue influence their numbers (and your decisions)?


«IntelliQuest Internet Study Shows 100 Million Adults Online in 2000,»
IntelliQuest, 3/3/99. An IntelliQuest report found 79.4 million US adults with Internet access, 38% of the population 16 and over. 60% of US users shop online, 20% purchase online. The typical user is becoming more mainstream: 36% have a college degree compared to 46% in 1996.55% of homes report household

income of $50K or more, compared to 60^% in 1996.

«Online population set to top 250 million in the next five years,»

Datamonitor, 3/1/99. In the next five years, the global online population is set to top 250 million. Video and audio applications via the Internet will increase rapidly – they now make up 2% of internet traffic, and by 2003 will account for 6%
«The UK Internet Survey 1999,»
Ch7 Europe, 3/17/99. Study finds 41% of prominent UK sites (compared with 35% in 1998) are using

the web to raise or save money online, rather than as a communication channel. Among this 41%, predominant business models are: advertising (51%), e-commerce (39%), and 10% saving money through cheaper customer service online.



OzMail Internet Trends


Solution: One-to-one Marketing


Consumers are no longer required to sit back and passively accept information fed to them by advertisers.

The Internet provides them with the tools necessary to seek out information relevant to their purchasing decisions.


Consumers can compare specific products, services or companies with the experiences of other consumers in any number of online discussion forums. They can easily, quickly and cheaply compare pricing, value-added services, customer support and any other relevant criteria, by communicating directly with the vendor, or via other consumer-focused Internet resources. GVU’s 10th WWW User Survey



Technology Demographics Summary

  • 5% of the respondents don’t have a home based business.
  • 2% have one phone line and 37.6% have two phone lines.
  • ISDN still hasn’t become popular. Only 6.9% of the respondents have ISDN lines. Part of this could be because of the non availability of this facility in all areas. Only 25% said that this facility is available in their area.
  • A whopping 63.1% have subscribed to Cable TV and a significant 5.9% dosen’t have cable network in their locality.
  • Users prefer using the web to watching TV, using a phone, sleeping, exercising, reading, watching movies, socialising or doing household work. The percentage of users prefering to use the web varies across categories. Watching TV is least preferred (8.7%) as compared to exercising( 32.5%).




  • Respondents are quite highly educated with 87.8% (80.9% Ninth) having at least some college experience and 59.3% (50.1% Ninth) having obtained at least one degree.
  • average age 37.6 years old
  • The average income was $57,300 (US)
  • Across all skill levels, the most common activities for our respondents are: changing their browser start-up page (80.5%), using an online directory to find an address or phone number (80%), and placing an order online (74%). The least common activities are: making a telephone call online (16.9%), taking a seminar about the Web (26.1%), and making a purchase online for more than $100 (46.0%). State of the Internet, January 1999

In 1999: 60,886,657 Internet hosts Internet Demographics and Electronic Commerce Statistics

http://www.commerce.net/ http://www.commerce.net/research/



  • Electronic Commerce Grows 40% in Nine Months with 55 Million Internet Users Shopping Online
  • According to the Survey, the number of Internet users in the U.S. and Canada increased 16% in just nine months, totalling more than 92 million users.
  • 72 million users access the Internet from home, 46 million from work, 28 million from school and 32 million from other locations, including a friend’s home or workplace, a library or cybercafe.
  • A total of 55 million people, or 60% of the Internet population, have used the Web to shop. The Survey defines «shopping» as researching and comparing the price and features of products and services online, regardless whether or not an actual online purchase was made.
  • «The Web is changing the rules, both on the consumer as well as the business side
  • Books, computers, clothing and CDs/videos top the list of items shopped for online, but they are all distant seconds to automobiles and automotive parts, with 18.2 million online shoppers as of April 1999
  • Among users who purchase online, 9 million made purchases once a month, and 1 million made purchases at least once a week.
  • The new findings reveal that women now comprise 38% of those that have purchased online. The number of women purchasing online increased 80% from the last survey.
  • Nearly half of the Internet users are women. Ggender differences are more visible in online shopping trends. Clothing and books are the top shopping destinations for women, whereas automobiles/automotive parts and computers top the shopping destinations for men.

 Internet Population


Projected GrowthDate     Population (In millions)1995     221996     37.84

1997     58

1998     87.75

1999     110.25

2000     132.75 THE NEW WIRED WORLD  The Dawn of E-Life

Newsweek International Edition: October 11, 1999 issue

http://www.newsweek.com/nw-srv/printed/int/wb/ov0115_1.htm 6/11-99


There’s no turning back. Once a novelty, the internet is now transforming how we live, think, talk and love; How we go to school, make money, see the doctor and elect our leaders. This isn’t just about the future — It’s about here and now. A special NEWSWEEK report.


What’s certain is that the world has digitized, and there’s no going back. Globally, there are

almost 200 million people on the Internet. In the United States alone, 80 million. The numbers tell just part of the story: the Net is no longer a novelty, an interesting way to pass the time. A third of wired Americans now do at least some of their shopping on the Net, and some are already consulting doctors on the Net, listening to radio on the Net, making investments on the Net, getting mortgages on the Net, tracking packages on the Net, getting news on the Net, having phone conversations on the Net, checking out

political candidates on the Net, even, um, having sex on the Net. Each of these activities is impressive, but the aggregate effect is a different kind of life. Our goal in this special issue of NEWSWEEK is to examine what’s happened, why and how the Internet is changing the way the world lives now.


Companies Wired to the Bottom Line


The leaders of Amazon.com, eBay and Priceline don’t just want you to buy things at their sites: they want to change the way you shop. Whose ideas work for you? What’s next in the world of e-commerce?

By Steven Levy IDC – Global Research



  • Asia Surpasses Europe in Information Revolution, According to 1999 IDC/World Times Information Society Index
  • The Internet Fully Arrives in Western Europe
  • IDC Expects Cable Modems to Conquer Europe
  • WAP Is on the Way, but Is Europe Ready?
  • European IP Telephony Market Worth $3.9 Billion by 2003, Says IDC
  • IDC Report Explores Increasing Demand for Customer Care Solutions in Europe
  • Voice and Data Integration Remains a Low Priority for WAN Managers in Europe
  • The Western European Cellular Services Market Will Reach $84 Billion by 200
  • IDC Study Reveals the Changing Face of European Telecoms



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